Thoughts On Tactics And Starting Eleven Against Hull City

The Norwich game ended up being a formality. Ramsey’s goal was immensely enjoyable and it was nice to see Diaby and Wilshere back on the pitch. Beyond that there isn’t much to talk about so I’ll come straight to the game we’ve all been waiting for eagerly.

Hull have picked up 1 point from their last five games and that was against relegated Fulham. They’ve lost 15 of their 18 games against the top 9 in the League. Arsenal topped the table when counting points taken against teams in the bottom half. The Gunners are coming into this Final on the back of five straight wins and have done the double over the Tigers scoring five unanswered goals in the process.

As far as any dictates of logic are concerned, Wenger’s side have to be the overwhelming favourites for this game with the usual caveats of the gap between teams being close and anything can happen on a given day being applicable.

There shouldn’t be any major surprises in this game. Hull are a competitive team and the game will certainly be very close till the first goal goes in. The two biggest factors that Arsenal will have to deal with are their own nerves and the opponents desire driven physicality.

Let’s cover anxiety first. I remember the tentativeness from the opening exchanges against Birmingham in the League Cup final. Szczesny was saved by an incorrect offside flag from conceding a penalty, and maybe a red card, really early in the game after the team failed to control the ball or its shape. Nerves can affect the decision making of players, their touch, and the speed with which they react. The resulting technical or tactical errors can level the game up in terms of the quality of the two sides and, if the mistakes are in dangerous zones, it can very quickly hand the initiative to the opponent.

That said, this time around I do have higher hopes. Arsenal have cut out many of their common errors from the recent past. For instance, in that penalty incident mentioned above, Song let his runner through when the team had a high-ish line that wasn’t straight. The frequency of such errors has definitely reduced off late. Those were still the days of struggling against the long ball but that’s another area where Wenger’s side have improved noticeably. There is more experience, greater composure, and a tendency among individuals to take responsibility to keep the vital defensive areas secure. All that should keep the goal relatively better protected even if the players exhibit a degree of hesitancy in expressing their game.

We did see a little bit of this against Wigan. Arsenal’s football wasn’t at the expected level, to put it politely. And Mertesacker’s uncharacteristic error reminded us that one potentially decisive error can come at any time. Nevertheless, over the course of 90 minutes, I have to say Arsenal were a lot more secure at the back than they’d have been a few years earlier. The equalizer that took the game to extra time was also a reminder of the fact that you can always get something from the game if you keep plugging away even when you’re not at your best.

The second factor is a little more complicated. Hull are not going to come up with a novel tactical approach that completely flummoxes the Gunners or produce technical football that will outclass Wenger’s side. What they can do is fight. When I say ‘desire driven physicality’, I don’t mean they’ll get violent. Commitment is the key word here. Most English sides don’t give up. And when it’s a Cup Final we can be sure the Tigers will have some bite. They’ve nothing to lose. All they’ve to do is stay organized – a strength of Steven Bruce, challenge for every ball, throw their bodies on the line when needed, and wait for their chance. They can score from a set-piece, a long range shot, or pounce upon a bad mistake by the Gunners. It’ll become easier for them if Wenger’s side are rattled or show some anxiety induced timidity early on. They’ll also gain confidence as time goes unless the Gunners take the lead.

As ever, the first goal will be very important. Arsenal have the highest PPG ratio (2.79) in the League when games scoring first are considered. Even though Hull are 11th in that chart, their 2.21 PPG is nothing to be scoffed at. Both teams have lost only 1 League game in which they’ve scored first. If we reverse that criterion, Wenger’s team have picked up 0.83 PPG from the 12 games where they’ve conceded first including two wins. Hull have 0.18 PPG (4 points) from the 22 games where they’ve let the first one in and just one win.

This will make the initial tactics interesting. Should Arsenal go for broke? Should Hull sit back and absorb some pressure to make sure they’re safe? What happens if both teams go for it?

The answer will lie as much in the tactical choices of the managers as it will in the way the players feel and are able to express themselves on the pitch. Nerves can be contagious. Just one or two players showing signs of tentativeness can drag the whole team down and that can change the entire tactical dynamic of the game. In this regard, Hull have a slight advantage because expectations are low and they have nothing to lose. It’s already a fairy tale run for them. They can enjoy the event and express themselves without fear. The ape clinging on to Arsenal’s back will have to be tamed quickly if the Gunners are to have fun. Respective fans can make a meaningful contribution. Groans from the Arsenal faithful, for instance, can be severely counter-productive.

One thing Arsenal absolutely must avoid is quick transitions from the central third of the pitch. That means players on the ball have to make the right choices even if it means safe passing that seemingly goes nowhere. Similarly, individuals will have to be stronger in possession. The likes of Santi and Özil have shown a tendency to surrender possession when harassed. This can really fire up the opponents while also opening the route to goal.

Control the ball, ride the challenges, and push the opponents back. Openings will come if they are willing to endure the grind. That doesn’t mean sharp passing and constant movement should be abandoned, just that it’s important to shield the ball in order to control the vital territories on the pitch.

Wenger should have no complaints as far as player availability is concerned. His biggest problem might be in deciding who to leave out of the squad.

I’d like to see,

Fabianski – Sagna, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Gibbs – Arteta, Özil, Ramsey – Cazorla, Giroud, Podolski.

While the choice of goalkeeper is debatable, the rest of that line up is Wenger’s best starting eleven on current form in my opinion.

To be honest, I’m finding it very hard to see why Arsenal shouldn’t win this game. Worryingly though, far too many times in the recent past, Wenger’s side have shown me how wrong I was when thinking like that. I’m sure many other Gooners are in the same boat and it’s really up to the players to take it to shore and settle the issue once and for all.

I’m amused by the thought of just how vastly different many peoples’ season reviews will be based on the result of just this one game. It has been a good season in my opinion with the potential to become an excellent one if the Gunners perform to their ability. Or it can become a nightmare with no place to hide. Among the many reasons I’d considered for the delay in the extension of the manager’s contract, one was that Wenger wants to give Arsenal the chance to change their mind should his team fail. It’ll certainly be very bad timing for any renewal should the Gunners stumble. Then again, announcing a new deal with monkeyless backs, and the FFP slowly making its presence felt, will surely shine a bright light towards the future.

One way or the other, this could be a historic day for Arsenal.

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Quick Thoughts On West Brom And Norwich

Arsenal’s fourth one-nil win of the season took the Gunners to 76 points. Only seven times in the entire Wenger era (or the Premier League period for that matter, including the first three seasons that had 42 games each) have the Gunners picked up more points. A win against Norwich will make it the fifth best points haul in the same time frame.

It is still not where it should and can be, but it’s tough to dismiss the performances or the quality of the squad as substandard. Much of the results this season have been, as obviously noted by many, built on a strong defensive foundation. The same was the case against West Brom.

After a strong start and an enjoyable, well-worked goal – once again a good set-piece variation with quality delivery, and Giroud contributing with his head while using his physical strength – the Gunners became sloppy as time went by. They had enough decent-ish chances to score the second but the cushion goal never came. Collective defending in front of two strong central defensive performances was needed to hold fort and secure the points.

I liked Özil’s movement into the wide areas and his ability to find Podolski’s runs, Cazorla’s positioning and timing in the centre, and the fact that Arsenal built quite a few attacks down their left. But it’s impossible to shake the feeling that players of this quality can do much better. Maybe they were going through the motions because the result didn’t really matter. Nevertheless, it was good to see that the sloppiness didn’t extend to the defending.

Norwich – Momentum Matters

It’s unlikely that the Canaries will stay up. It’s hard to guess how a team will play in such a situation. Each player will probably react in a different way and that might affect the overall output of the team. Or they could all buy into the idea of bowing out with a positive memory and give it their all.

Arsenal don’t have much to gain except, as discussed above, taking the points tally to their fifth best in the Premier League era. That said, there might be something in this game for the Gunners from a psychological point of view. Going into the FA Cup final on the back of five wins will probably have a favourable impact on how the team starts that game, if not the whole performance.

Norwich have the 3rd worst defence in terms of goals conceded with 60 shipped in 37 games. But you’ll be surprised if you haven’t already noticed, the Canaries have the fourth best defence at home with just 16 goals conceded in 18 games. Liverpool had to fight for a win there recently while City and Everton have dropped points at Carrow Road.

Their problem is the League’s worst attack. And because of that I’ll be extremely disappointed if the Gunners don’t keep another clean sheet, which would be their 17th of the season. Never since 2000-01 have Wenger’s side kept that many in one League campaign.

Since it’s hard to guess the patterns of play, I’m just hoping Arsenal will be professional and focussed enough to get the job done. It’ll be nice to have more memorable goals and a repeat of the reverse fixture but it’s not a necessity. More variations on set-pieces and different attacking combinations should indicate that the team and coaching staff are using the time well.

Wenger could be tempted to start some of his fringe players but I’d like to see a strong eleven getting in the groove for next Saturday. Rhythm is very important for the Gunners.

I’d like to see,

Szczesny – Sagna, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Monreal – Arteta, Özil, Ramsey – Cazorla, Giroud, Podolski.

Fabianski in place of Szczesny would be an interesting choice. That would probably complete the ideal line-up for the FA Cup final based on current form and fitness.

Of course, Ramsey should not be risked if he is not fully fit. That applies to pretty much any player at this stage and, in that regard, I was glad the Welshman didn’t feature in the final home game of the season.

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Quick Thoughts On Newcastle And West Brom

Happy St. Totteringham’s day to you. It was also made sweeter by the knowledge that 4th place is now safe. That certainly makes this one of the most enjoyable weeks of the season.

The football itself wasn’t great, but it didn’t have to be. Newcastle never really turned up as a team and there were enough individual mistakes to make this a comfortable win for the Gunners. Throughout the game it seemed like their players were trying, at least on an individual basis, but Pardew’s side failed to generate any form of cohesion in attack or defence. Sporadic moments of quality, coupled with Arsenal’s average performance, kept the game close for a while.

It was nice to see Arsenal score from a quality set-piece. Krul should have done much better but you can’t take anything away from Cazorla’s delivery or Koscielny’s desire and deft touch. In general, I enjoyed various variations on corners and free-kicks. The movement of players in the box and the pace and angle of delivery were mixed up rather well and often resulted in threatening moments. Hopefully, this won’t be a one-off.

There was still some tension in the air till the second goal went in. It was a clear off-side but I doubt anyone will argue this game would have had a different result had the flag gone up. Giroud has to finish some of those type of chances. I don’t know if he can improve on such details but it’s pretty clear that he will struggle to have a long career at the top level if he keeps missing as often as he currently does.

The second half seemed like a formality. Özil’s cross for the third goal was superb as was the French striker’s header. I don’t fully understand why Giroud doesn’t score more from more headers. He has all the attributes to contribute with his head in the box – to score and set up goals – but Arsenal haven’t really used that strength well and he’s come up short on a few occasions when the service has been good.

West Brom – Three points will still be good

Arsenal no longer need any points as far as the League table is concerned. Finishing 3rd is highly unlikely and 4th is in the bag. Nevertheless, winning the last two League games should still be a priority because it will affect momentum going into the FA Cup final and possibly even the preparations for next season. Imagine finishing 10 points above Spurs after all that was written during the last summer and at the start of the season.

The Baggies are not theoretically safe yet but they should most probably survive. It’s been a strange season for them because the individual quality in that squad is definitely better than the League position and points they’ve achieved. It’s partly reflected in the fact that they’ve drawn 8 of the 11 games against the top 6. Chelsea, Everton, and Spurs failed to beat them this season. Arsenal could be next on that list if the Gunners don’t turn up with their A game.

I find them quite unpredictable. They’ve scored some impressive goals but overall they’ve also struggled to put the ball in the net, even against the smaller teams.

Amalfitano has a bag full of tricks while Berahino has skill as well as pace. They can be troublesome if they get a chance to run into space. Sessegnon – remember the hype last season? – is another useful player for counter-attacks but has had an underwhelming season.

For the most part, Arsenal’s biggest defensive challenge in this game will be to minimize opportunities for runs in behind and avoiding isolating defenders in n-v-n situations. It should not be too hard as long as the midfield remains focussed and diligent.

Breaking down their defence is not always easy but they’ve conceded over 1.7 goals per game on an average in away games and have only one clean sheet in games against the top 8. Arsenal should break through as long as they are patient but persistent. Spaces should arise in front of their central defence and behind the lines if they push up. With Ramsey, Cazorla, and Özil clicking well in recent games, I’ll be very surprised if the Gunners don’t create some quality chances.

With the pressure off in the League, it’ll be great if we see Wenger’s side going out on the pitch to enjoy their game. Sometimes that can unshackle a team, particularly one that is so reliant on combination play.

The manager might be tempted to make a few changes to his starting line-up to see how some players fare. But given what I’ve seen from Arsene over the years, I have a feeling he will go with a very strong starting eleven so that they develop some rhythm building up to the Cup final.

We might see,

Szczesny – Jenkinson, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Monreal – Arteta, Özil, Ramsey – Cazorla, Giroud, Podolski.

It seems Sagna has picked up an injury. Wenger does, at times, use injury as an excuse when he’s leaving a player out, but I don’t see the point in deliberately dropping the French full-back unless he’s in negotiations with another team and not completely focussed. It would have been good to see Sagna complete the season with his impeccable professionalism. Will he be left out for a couple of games and then brought back for the final? That’ll certainly be odd. Hopefully, it’s really just a minor injury and nothing else.

Before ending I wanted to mention this World Cup Prediction contest on Betting Expert. There’s over €10,000 worth of prizes to be won. Check it out if that sort of thing interests you.

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