Unless I’ve completely forgotten some game, that comeback victory at Upton Park was Arseanal’s first such win this season. The Gunners have scored first (13/18 League games, 6/8 Champions League) quite often and that has been one of the pillars of their success thus far but their record after conceding first was very average, to borrow Wenger’s euphemism. With that in mind, the result against West Ham was all the more enjoyable even if it came against the weakest team in the League on current form (2 points from last 6 games).
In such games I do feel that Wenger’s biggest job is probably to ensure his players remember just how good they are. The opponents only had long balls and physicality to rely on, as primitive as a team could get tactically. Even such a style can work if the team has a solid defence to protect it’s goal. The Hammers didn’t have it. They’d shipped 3 goals against Chelsea, Everton, and City before this game and it was no surprise that Arsenal created so many chances.
Although all of Arsenal’s goals came after the hour mark and after Podolski came on for the injured Ramsey, I thought the team could easily have scored a couple or more in the first half if they had a bit more luck and greater efficiency in the final third. Giroud’s anticipation and finishing was again a tad disappointing.
The extra bit of luck was there in the second half. Walcott’s first goal just went through two or three players. It doesn’t happen often. For his second the deflection off the defender at the near post came at a perfect height for him. Again an infrequent occurrence. That doesn’t mean he or the team don’t deserve credit for the goals, but it’s sufficient to remind us that sometimes luck can also be one of the major decisive factors when it comes to converting promising moments into goals.
The third goal, of course, was the most enjoyable of the lot. I liked the way Cazorla got in between the lines, the way Walcott consciously made a decision to pick a pass to Giroud instead of putting in a hopeful cross behind the defence, and the way the striker laid it off. Podolski’s finish was the icing on the cake. It’d be great if we can see more such goals but in most games I’d expect the defensive lines to be closer and a player either blocking/clearing that lay-off or closing Podolski down. Anyway, West Ham were poor, Arsenal took advantage, it was nice to watch, and the points are very useful.
Individually speaking, Cazorla’s cameo in the centre was a joy to watch. The obvious jump to a hasty conclusion from this observation, and an incorrect one in my opinion, would be to say Cazorla should play centrally. I don’t think that’s really the issue here. In the last few games it seems Ramsey has reverted to his problems from last season where he was trying too much. That’s slowed Arsenal down at times and the Welshman has been getting in the way of his more creative colleagues instead of bringing them into play as soon as possible and subsequently joining the attack at the right moment. This has made the game harder for both Özil and Cazorla. Perhaps his injury, unfortunate and undesirable though it is, has come at the right time.
To be clear, the idea is not to suggest Santi can’t play centrally. He’s certainly a good alternative if Özil is injured or has to be rested. But both of them together in central roles would not be a very advisable tactic.
Podolski’s decisive impact was also excellent. He is a very good player to have around against opposition of this calibre. I’m not sure he could have a similarly meaningful effect on a game against the big sides but the German’s return certainly strengthens the team and gives Wenger more options.
The goal conceded by Arsenal was very soft. I’m not sure what Arteta was trying to do there and chances are he didn’t either, which is what led to that poor touch. There should have been another midfielder on the edge of the box. But the bulk of the blame has to fall on Szczesny who spilled a pretty straightforward catch.
The team also conceded a couple of other chances and there was a phase when they seemed rattled. This shouldn’t happen in such games. They must never forget how good they are or the fact that most opponents can’t sustain such physical intensity for the duration of the game, and they need to know deep down that 90 minutes is a very long time. Their chance will come. Those moments when Ramsey was down and even the Arsenal players didn’t put the ball out tell me these vital details are not drilled down into the players’ psyche. The difficult phases of games will come and go if they remain calm and stick to their game. There is no need to panic or lose control of the tempo when opponents raise their intensity or even when they score a goal. That’s a major step in tactical maturity that the Gunners are yet to take.
Newcastle will provide a genuine challenge…
The previous opponents were the worst team on current form (last 6 games) but the next ones are third from top. This will be a tough game. Just like the Gunners have to keep proving they are title contenders, Newcastle’s inconsistency over the last season or two means they too will have to show their quality every week to establish themselves as top four challengers. Both teams have a lot riding on this game.
The hosts have scored first in 12 of their 18 games while the visitors have done so 13 times in as many games. Newcastle have won 75 percent of the games when they’ve scored first and lost only one of those 12. Arsenal have won close to 85 percent of the games when opening the scoring and they too have lost only one such game(that was Villa, the first game). Neither team has a great record when they’ve conceded first. Needless to say the opener could be decisive.
That means this game could be a very cagey affair tactically and both sides will have to avoid mistakes in the opening exchanges. Flip that and you could say the side that takes early initiative in an aggressive and decisive manner can reap the rewards.
Wenger’s side are top of the table based on second half performances, just as they were last season. Pardew’s men only come 11th. It might be advisable for the Gunners to bide their time. The points discussed above – not forgetting how good they are, staying true to their game, maintaining defensive stability and composure, and avoiding panic – can be the difference between three points and a disappointment.
Newcastle will pack the midfield and offer stiff resistance in the central third. They will have much better organization than West Ham and maybe even greater physicality. The hosts will also offer strong competition in the technical areas because their ball circulation is better, they’ve movement that can facilitate attacking play, and they’ve individuals who can shoot from distance or deliver accurate set-pieces. But they will have to leave spaces behind their defence if they want to battle for possession and territory higher up the pitch.
Now that Wilshere is available again, Walcott is getting back to his best, and Podolski is starting to get time on the pitch, Wenger can choose one of many workable permutations based on the kind of game he wants his side to play, particularly if Koscielny and Rosicky are also deemed fit.
I doubt he’ll rest the key players for a game as tough as this one, more so because a relatively easier one at home is next.
Least disruptive option for the starting line-up seems to be,
Szczesny – Sagna, Mertesacker, Vermaelen, Gibbs – Arteta, Özil, Wilshere – Walcott, Giroud, Cazorla.
Monreal and or Koscielny could come into the back four but even if that remains unchanged, the possible permutations in midfield and attack are exciting to say the least. Consider these options,
Arteta, Özil, Flamini – Walcott, Giroud, Cazorla;
Flamini, Özil, Wilshere – Walcott, Giroud, Cazorla;
Flamini, Cazorla, Wilshere – Walcott, Giroud, Rosicky;
Arteta, Özil, Flamini – Wilshere, Walcott, Cazorla;
Flamini, Cazorla, Wilshere – Rosicky, Walcott, Podolski;
And so on…
There can be minor issues with any of those combinations because of individual quirks. For instance, Wilshere’s decision making and tactical awareness is still a work in progress and that brings some inefficiency to attack and defence when he plays centrally. Flamini is not the ideal midfielder from a technical point of view, particularly in a game where the opponent is likely to press and chase hard. Mobility isn’t Arteta’s strong suit when chasing the ball. Without Giroud the side could be overrun physically. These would be valid concerns and they are only indicative not comprehensive. Nevertheless, if you put together the strengths of these players and try to visualize the team working together in a manner that brings out the best in each individual a lot more often than the worst, it’s not hard to see the players in any of these permutations clicking together in a purposeful and decisive manner.
The only real issue is that Arsenal aren’t always able to get the best out of each player if they’ve not been playing together consistently and that’s where rotations can disrupt the side’s rhythm. Wenger really has an unenviable task here and I wish him all the best with his choices!
Newcastle have already defeated Chelsea (home), United (away), and Spurs (away) this season. All those wins came on the back of clean sheets. They also drew with Liverpool at home. One way to look at those results is that it provides Arsenal with an opportunity to gain points on their rivals. The other way to look at this is that Pardew’s side are playing as good as the other big teams. We’ve already discussed the Gunners’ struggles in games against the other strong sides (2 wins and 11 points from 12 games). That diminishes cause for optimism.
I think both sides deserve to go into this game with their confidence high but they’ll have to sustain that belief and produce a quality effort all over the pitch for 90 minutes to get all three points.
Thoughts On The Napoli, Man City, Tactics, and Mentality
December 14, 2013Arsenal had a tough time in Naples but they hung on to the second spot. I thought both managers, Benitez particularly, lacked a bit of courage. Had the hosts gone for three goals after scoring the first instead of playing it safe the result could very well have been different.
Wenger’s choices – for instance, the inclusion or Rosicky over Walcott presumably to provide better cover for Jenkinson – were not very bold either. You could argue that both were being pragmatic and showed respect for the opposition’s quality but looking back I’d say it was a missed opportunity for both. Napoli missed out on qualification altogether while the Gunners lost first place and took a dent in their confidence.
I’m not sure there is much to gain from dissecting the performance in great detail but it certainly seemed a game where the players were lost from a tactical point of view. As Wenger said after the game, “We prepared well and were concentrated but we were a bit in between ‘do we attack or do we defend’. It is difficult to cope with that problem.”
Wenger wants his team to play with the ball. He talks about it all the time. I don’t know how many people noticed this but there was a moment, late in the game, when the ball came to Szczesny and he waited, with it at his feet, till someone came to contest before picking it up. Then as the players pushed up and the hosts withdrew deeper, the Pole again put the ball down and took his time with the kick. During these few seconds Wenger was briefly visible on the TV urging his goalkeeper to kick the ball with his lip movement saying something like, “play, play, play…”
It seemed to me he did not want his team to stop playing – remember this is one observation I’ve often made when Arsenal struggle; the off-the-ball movement stops and the Gunners just stop playing their game – and understandably so. But in that moment one could also sense that the individuals on the pitch can’t always execute the manager’s plan.
I think a big part in that is down to Arsenal’s tendency of defending so deep. It’s worked well for the most part – more on that in just a bit – but it does pull the players far away from the opposition goal. It seems to me the Gunners have lost the ability to press higher up the pitch or defend the central third against high quality opponents. This will become more and more obvious before the season ends and we’ll have to see whether the squad and coaching staff can bring out the required changes.
I was looking at the results since the start of the season and the following table captures the performance of the top clubs in the Premier League starting January 1, 2013 and up till fixtures played last weekend.
(ignore the lighter shade for United)
A full discussion based on that table alone could run into thousands of words so I’ll just make a few relevant observations here.
Firstly, Arsenal have clearly had the best results. The nearest club, in terms of points, is eight points behind. It’d be a hard lead to lose in the next four games and Arsenal could win the title for the calendar year.
Even from a points per game perspective the Gunners are better by almost a quarter point, which equates to a lead of over 9 points after 38 games. Significant indeed.
The congestion below the top mirrors the compactness of the current League table. In terms of form and consistency there’s very little to choose between most of these teams.
Of course, the title is not awarded based on the performance in a calendar year and right so, but this does provide a decent tool to gauge the quality of a team. Some might argue this is not proof that Arsenal have been outstanding but most will be hard pressed to argue that others are head and shoulders above the Gunners.
There is though, a twist in the tale. It comes when we consider Arsenal’s performances against these other 6 teams in this calendar year. This is how it looks,
Not very impressive, is it. Interestingly, three of these defeats and a draw came before the win in Munich in March. Since then the Gunners’ only loss against these sides has come at Old Trafford this season. The two wins have also come this season. Counting only games played since that inspiring win over Bayern, the PPG would rise to 1.5. That’s not very special either but is somewhat respectable. In any case, this table does explain why so many people still say something like, “let them play Chelsea and Man City, then we’ll see what Arsenal are made of.”
Subtract this data from Arsenal’s overall performance and you’ll find the Gunners have won 21 of their remaining 24 fixtures against the rest of the pack picking up 65 points at a whopping 2.71 PPG in the process. That is truly extraordinary.
How can a team be so good against the bottom 13 and struggle to this extent against the top 7? Don’t forget, the League is very close and we’ve constantly seen the relatively smaller sides take points off other big teams. If everyone pummelled the so-called minnows it would have been a different story.
I don’t think there is a straightforward answer to this question. Much of it is linked to the confidence of the players – the handbrake, the inhibited offensive movement (few players in the opposition box for instance), and nervy moments leading to individual errors in defence are all linked to mentality and confidence.
I’m hopeful there will only be a handful of idiots left who would still argue this side lacks winning mentality and all that jazz because that does not explain the form against the other sides. Big players always improve squads – for instance, I’d absolutely love to see Suarez at Arsenal – but this really can’t be down to individual quality as the primary factor. For one thing, Arsenal’s points total for this year is enough to dispute any claims about the squad lacking quality. If other teams were that superior in terms of squad strength it should show in that first table. There are other ways to analyze this as well but I don’t want to dwell upon it as the point seems sound enough.
Is the problem tactical? Even if it is, we still have to explain how Arsenal have 75 points from 34 games.
I am inclined to believe it’s a combination of tactical issues that in turn affect mentality and confidence which then lead to subpar individual performances. Going into all the details of my thoughts on this matter will take me over ten thousand words so I’ll again limit myself to a few observations that are relevant in the current context.
A lot of this good form is linked with defensive improvement. Most of that has come from very deep defending, almost akin to parking the bus. Look back at the games and see how often the opponents had Arsenal pinned back in their own defensive third. Points for resolve, concentration, and discipline must be given – and are in fact visible on that table – but it does limit Arsenal’s offensive potential. I’ve talked about this lack of balance quite often.
Against the smaller teams Arsenal have invariably found ways to score on the break. Strong defence and an ability to score can consistently equate to three points. This is easier against the relatively smaller teams who
a) don’t have the quality in the final third to trouble a determined, well-organized, deep-lying defence.
b) Can’t break up counter-attacks as efficiently and consistently, and are vulnerable when not defending in numbers themselves
On the other hand, the big teams are used to defending against counter-attacks and have greater offensive quality in the final third. That means it’s harder for the Gunners to break forward in a decisive manner and there’s a greater probability of conceding goals or making mistakes at the back. The players seem to know this subconsciously and it affects their confidence, which in turn helps propagate this cycle further.
In my opinion, at the moment this is the simplest way of explaining Arsenal’s strengths and weaknesses and their impact on the results. Someday with more time and significantly greater liberty in terms of word count, I’ll try to discuss more details with examples and explore ideas for change.
For now, this is what it is and the intricacies of the game against Man City have to been understood in light of that discussion.
Pellegrini is building a very exciting team at the Etihad. If I am honest, I’ve enjoyed watching City more than I’ve enjoyed Arsenal’s football because with them I can even have fun watching all the bloopers at the back. They’ve a big advantage in terms of financial muscle that translates into individual quality, particularly in attack, and it shows.
This game should bring the toughest test of Arsenal’s defence so far this season and a comparably challenging one for the team as a whole.
City have been imperious at home. A lot of that comes from their ruthlessness in attack and the ability to score the first goal relatively early. The smaller teams have been dealt with easily but they’ve also played excellent counter-attacking football against the likes of Manchester United, Tottenham, and Swansea who all dominated the ball at the Etihad.
It’ll be nigh on impossible for the Gunners to come back into this game if the hosts score first. That could lead to the side playing with the handbrake on, which will be counter-productive. Arsenal have to play their football, only with greater caution and defensive awareness.
Arteta has to be closer to the defence – in general the gap between the lines must be limited – and very alert to one of the two forwards dropping deeper. Ramsey must also pick and choose his moments to join the attack. Toure and the Welshman have vastly different physical qualities but play very similar roles for their teams. The decisive performance could come from the player who expresses himself better.
Hopefully, Walcott will be fit to start and Wenger will take a chance on playing him. It is understandable that the Theo-Jenkinson combination isn’t ideal for defending the right side in a big game. So much so that I suspect Wenger might even play Sagna if the Frenchman is half fit. Even if that is not the case, this is a gamble the manager has to take with strict instructions to Jenkinson to stay deeper and focus on defending.
On the other flank, we’ll have to see if the Chilean manager goes with Navas or a midfielder. He’ll have an offensive advantage if he picks two strikers and a traditional winger but that would come at the cost of some technical quality, which could become very relevant if the offensive advantage doesn’t translate into an early goal.
Interestingly, both teams are 5-0 when it comes to goals scored and conceded in the first 15 minutes of games. City are 19-4 in the first half (14-1 at home) while the Gunners are 12-4 (8-2). You might be reminded of Arsenal’s inability to convert their chances into healthier first-half leads in some games.
City have conceded more goals than Arsenal, and are 6-6 in the final 15 minutes of games as against 8-4 for the Gunners, but many of those have been freakish goals and have come away from home.
Arsenal’s best hope would be to retain possession, even if it’s in their own half, and bide their time. Do not commit too many bodies forward, sustain concentration and discipline, track the runs of the attacking players, and don’t rely on the offside line. Despite their exceptional home record, there are defensive mistakes in this City side and patience is the best way to expose them.
I’d like to see,
Szczesny – Sagna, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Monreal – Arteta, Özil, Ramsey – Walcott, Giroud, Cazorla.
It might be interesting to have Monreal against Navas, not only because of fresher legs but their familiarity from their time in La Liga.
A more radical option would be to play Walcott centrally with Rosicky or Wilshere on the right.
Mertesacker and Koscielny have done well against some big names in recent times. But in this game they’ll be up against a very well-oiled attacking machine that poses multiple threats. I don’t think they can protect the goal without consistent support. The full-backs will have to be much more conservative than they normally are.
This is arguably the toughest game Arsenal are going to play this year and I think a draw will be a very good result. The Gunners are capable of sneaking a victory like they did at Dortmund but I’d not recommend putting any money on it. City are justifiably the favourites and it’s up to Arsenal to prove what they can do.
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