There were many surprises in this game starting with the line-ups selected by the managers but it ended, unfortunately, in a predictable and disappointing manner. There were some positives for Arsenal but one has to wonder why we end up talking about ‘some positives’ after big games more often than enjoying actual great wins.
There seemed to be three distinct phases to the game.
1) Arsenal’s exhilarating start
Wenger’s side came out all guns blazing. The aggression and purpose showed by the players was simply outstanding. I think this phase lasted from kickoff till the penalty miss, or you could round it up to the first 10 minutes.
I was also surprised by how unprepared Bayern were for such a tempo. Guardiola is widely regarded as a manager who pays excruciating attention to details. But the German side had that deer-in-the-headlights look at times.
The numbers from this phase are interesting.
The Gunners were moving the ball quickly and with the kind of midfield fluidity that is visible when Wenger’s team are playing their best football. Wilshere was often the highest in midfield, Özil drifted to the left, and Santi came central or went to the right at will. Oxlade-Chamberlain looked in his elements when he got a chance to run at opponents.
Bayern were looking to press up the pitch but they weren’t getting close to the ball. When they did, Arsenal showed greater tenacity and desire to win the 50-50s. That to me was the crux of the home sides advantage – speed and desire.
Five of Arsenal’s eight chances came in this period!
It’s worth noting that most of these chances didn’t come from slick one-touch football that carved opponents apart. I think the speed of play was too high for that degree of control. But, in a state of frantic play, opportunities arose from greater willingness and preparedness. For instance, Sanogo was surrounded by Bayern players in the first minute but he fought for the loose ball before breaking forward. Similarly, his shot that forced an excellent save from Neuer came from Wilshere’s tenacity and his own opportunism with an early strike. Bayern had enough players around the ball but they just weren’t fighting hard for it.
The visitors lost some of their composure as the intensity caught them off-guard. This meant their performance in possession was below par and they weren’t in the right shape on transitions or defensive situations.
In a neat little coincidence, the Official Membership Newsletter that I got from Arsenal today had the following words from Rosicky,
When we went to Southampton and Liverpool recently, the big difference was that their opening spell was much more aggressive than us. Basically, if we don’t match our opponents’ fighting spirit and aggression, we can’t expect to win every game just based on our football skills. It doesn’t work like that.
He was talking about the attitude needed for the remaining League games but it could easily have been a lesson for Bayern. It could be that English teams are more used to such a tempo and are not caught unawares but the Germans were simply not ready for it. Don’t be surprised though, if one little spell is enough to ensure Guardiola has his team ready to match any speed the visitors produce in the reverse leg.
A little bit of luck was also involved as two very close off-side decisions went in Arsenal’s favour. Cazorla’s run down the right could have been halted by the flag as could Özil’s penalty winning dart in behind. I am not saying they were off-side as the replays I saw were inconclusive, just that I’ve seen such calls go in favour of the defensive team often enough to acknowledge the role of luck.
Turning point:
The penalty was obviously the turning point. Had the Gunners scored they’d have gained greater conviction as their approach succeeded and the crowd – fantastic on the night, I must say – would have really lifted the atmosphere to another, probably unprecedented, level.
The miss, and the astonishing confidence-sapping manner of it, flattened Arsenal’s momentum in one swift blow. Had Arsenal been dominating through technical or tactical reasons, one could imagine them regaining that superiority at some point in the game. But the fact was they were relying on energy, desire, and belief. These are not so easy to rediscover. Wenger might have said something at half-time to reignite the spark had the team gone in at the break without losing a man. But that was about the only hope.
Not to pile on the misery on a player I love watching and one who’s already receiving unfair criticism in abundance, but Özil wallowing in regret and letting disappointment affect his performance didn’t help. Professionals, particularly those at the highest level, have to know how to get over mistakes and raise the bar when they’re facing the toughest of moments.
I’m not convinced the fact that Neuer and Özil have known each other since their school days had any bearing on the outcome. You can argue Özil knew what Neuer would do just as easily as the opposite has been said. And you can wonder whether either or both players were trying to second guess each other. The simple fact, in my opinion, is that shooting is not Özil’s strength. He doesn’t have the technique for it and it is very different from passing the ball. When he has to pick a pass he can adjust his body shape at the last minute, pause if he has to, or move the ball a little so the angle works. He also has a clear, usually narrow, target. Shooting at goal is like hunting a different beast. That doesn’t mean he cannot ever improve but it’s important to acknowledge this is not the best use of his abilities and puts more pressure on him. He should not be on direct free-kicks or penalties till he’s worked on his shooting technique and demonstrated noteworthy improvements. Of course, it always leaves me wondering what are they seeing in training to put such responsibility on his shoulders in the first place.
Warning Signs:
Bayern had almost nothing going for them during this spell but they still produced a couple of quality shots. These should have served as a warning but I think defending with 4 midfielders instead of 5 – something Arsenal seem to be trying since the second half in Southampton – was always going to be hard for the team that is used to an extra body to help out. Given the consistency of the shape and positioning of the players, I think it’s safe to assume this was pre-planned. And it wasn’t a very good approach because the team dropped too deep and too narrow.
That is a snapshot from Bayern’s attack in the third minute that led to a shot by Kroos. Notice how much time and space is available in front of Arsenal’s midfield line, which is extremely deep. Players of this quality can pick their passes or place their shots when afforded such luxury. Also see the gap between Koscielny and Gibbs. A similar opening was again visible when Robben went between the centre back and Monreal.
2) Bayern slowly gain control
After the penalty was missed the hosts lost their momentum and their energy levels dropped. There was uncertainty in their actions and as a result, despite their still visible desire to do well, the team wasn’t quite as the same level as they lacked cohesion and were a step behind the play.
This drop also had the effect of bringing the speed of the game to a level that Bayern were extremely comfortable with. A lot of people have said that Arsenal were on top as long as the game was even in numerical terms but this is not exactly accurate.
From the 9th minute onwards the visitors started controlling the ball and territory. They took charge of the centre of the pitch. Whereas earlier the Gunners were breaking their attacks down early in the build up, now the hosts had to drop deep consistently. Similarly, Wenger’s side was no longer able to pass out from the back in the manner that helped them impose themselves in the first 8 minutes. Bayern’s pressing was now quite effective.
Arsenal made fewer passes from the time the penalty was missed to the time Szczesny was sent off than they did in the phase discussed earlier. And a lot of their passing was long from the back as they just couldn’t beat the Bayern pressing. The odd chance that came – like the long ball that Chamberlain chased down – was more hopeful than genuinely threatening even if it did get the viewers on the edge of their seats.
The visitors on the other hand were quickly settling into a nice rhythm. The diligence of the home side and numbers in and around the Arsenal box prevented clear cut chances but the pressure was building. Guardiola’s side were able to get past Arsenal’s first line of defence with ease when the Gunners pushed up to the centre line. They found spaces between the lines and were able to spread play to unmarked teammates on the flanks at will.
Robben went close in the 35th minute with a shot from a good position that was blocked by Mertesacker. Soon after that Koscielny had to make a desperate tackle as Mandzukic got into a very promising position in the box. It was almost prescient when Gary Neville in commentary said, “…need to stay in the game here arsenal, sense something’s happening for Bayern Munich…”
Within a minute or so of that statement came the decisive moment of the game. See the following images and decide which one came from the second minute and which one from the 37th.
Kroos had so much time to measure his pass. Monreal not tracking the run was bordering on criminally negligent. It was also interesting that Mandzukic blocked Koscielny as the defender was trying to turn and chase back. I’m not saying it was a foul, just a clever ploy which seemed within the rules. Whether it was intentional or coincidental is something only he can tell.
The biggest culprit, however, was without a doubt the Arsenal goalie Szczesny. His error in judging the flight of the ball, the choice of flying out in that manner, and the utterly unnecessary act of going to ground seem inexcusable.
See how far away he is from the ball. The way his knees are bent seems to suggest he’s already going to ground. It’s understandable if any player goes for a 50-50 and loses the challenge. I also don’t think it’s fair to criticize someone who has to make a split second decision.
But this was never a contest. Robben would have had a hard time getting his shot away given the way he was stretching to reach the ball. If Szczesny comes out and stays upright, he gives himself the chance to win the ball when the Dutchman has to take a moment to gain his balance while bringing the ball under control. Chances are he could still lose that challenge but at least then it would be close. This was just daft/irresponsible.
It’s not his first mistake either. In fact, if someone in the future gets a chance to analyze players from this generation on an impartial basis, I won’t be surprised if Szczesny is identified amongst the luckiest of his tribe. Over the last two years the Gunners have worked so hard on improving their collective defending that many of his errors are covered for by his teammates. I can’t see him surviving at any other major club for this long.
The worst part is you could see it coming. I covered it in the pre-match notes,
Szczesny is not very good in a one-v-one in my opinion and could potentially be a liability if Bayern get in behind repeatedly.
There is the angle of triple jeopardy with the DOGSO red card and penalty. The merits of the law itself can be debated but in this instance the ref had no choice but to send him off based on current rules. I would like to see some changes in that and related laws but such a discussion is beyond the scope of this article.
3) 10 v 11
I was surprised when Cazorla went out and Özil stayed on the pitch as Fabianski came on. It’s not an easy call and can be argued both ways but my preference would have been to take the German off.
Alaba missed his spot kick and that kept Arsenal in the game. The Gunners did well to reach half time without conceding. The team had to make some decisions in the second half. Did they want to settle for a point? Was there any way they could compete?
I don’t know what they decided but the defensive approach – extremely deep and narrow – meant that it was easy for Bayern to press and box the hosts in and around their penalty box. There was no outlet and seemingly no plan to ease the pressure. It seemed a matter of hunkering down and fighting for their lives.
In terms of physical and mental effort, the Gunners were heroic in their endeavours. But that isn’t always enough. The time and space they afforded the visitors just on the edge of the box was too much and Bayern showed us the importance of patience and a bit of tinkering as Guardiola made subtle changes to his line-up to make the most of the man advantage.
I don’t think the players deserve much blame for the way they defended and conceded, before and after the sending off. The key here is the team’s inability to defend the centre line once the tempo was lost. Arsenal have to learn to defend higher up the pitch and cover more spaces with the players they have. Even with 10 men they should have been able to defend higher up. Of course, we’ve seen the vulnerability with balls in behind when they try that against good teams. These are related issues that show plenty of work still needs to be done before this side can be considered an accomplished defensive unit.
I have covered the difference between assured defending and desperate defending in some detail in earlier articles on this blog. In this game, with so many clearances, blocks, and last man tackles from deep, Arsenal’s defending was far from the assured version. That means they were always going to need a fair bit of luck to keep a clean sheet. It should not take anything away from individual effort – for instance, Koscielny was absolutely sensational – but in terms of organization, tactics, and game intelligence the side has a long way to go if they want to be more competitive in the big games. They’ll not be able to sustain a breathtaking tempo for 90 minutes in game after game and that can never be the basis for defending in big games.
I actually got the feeling Bayern were below their own high standards with their utilization of possession when they had such a big advantage. A lot of their play was individualistic or relied on 2-3 player combinations in the wide areas. You could say they were creating overloads wide on their right whereas Arsenal had extra bodies in central defence, which helped with the blocks, timely tackles, and clearances. The introductions of Muller and Pizzaro certainly helped counter that and it shows Guardiola is constantly looking to make a difference.
The second goal felt like a cruel blow after all the defensive hard work as it’s left faint hopes of a comeback. But you can’t take it away from Bayern they were clearly the dominant side once the frantic tempo was gone.
Sunderland – Opportunity to rise, potential to flop
Arsenal started last season with a goalless draw against Sunderland. That gives the team an opportunity to pick up two points over the corresponding fixture.
This will be another test of Arsenal’s mentality. It’s one of two buffer games before another run of big challenges returns. The Gunners have done well to win such games and that is main reason they are still in with a shout. It is a must win game and the players will have to recover quickly from Wednesday’s exertions. Playing at home should help, more so if the crowd can respond like they did in the midweek tie.
There should be no surprises tactically. It seems like a typical Premier League game against a team on a positive curve when battling relegation. Expect full commitment, organization, and fighting spirit visible in the form of aggressive physical challenges and combative duels. The Black Cats are not a great passing side but they offer sufficient and diverse goal threat. And ever since Poyet has taken over they have slowly become a reliable side in defence with an impressive away record that has them undefeated in six games and includes wins at Goodison Park and St James’ Park. They’re also in the Capital One Cup final and in the FA Cup quarter-finals. It promises to be a very tricky game.
Johnson is their in-form man and Monreal will have to avoid repeating some of his recent mistakes to keep him in check. Arsenal’s best bet would probably be to isolate the attacker against two or three defensive players by pinning most of his teammates back through possession and movement.
Of course, there is the chance that Poyet will set his team up to defend deep. It could be a reversal of roles for the Gunners and hopefully they’ll be up for the challenge. The team hasn’t always looked convincing when the opponents are well-organized in front of their goal but usually against the relatively smaller teams Arsenal find an extra gear at some stage. It’ll be helpful if that comes early in this game. Repeating the start against Bayern would be ideal but not many Premier League teams get caught out by a flying tempo at the start.
I also expect them to use long balls and physicality to trouble the Arsenal defence. It’d be a whole new challenge for the Gunners after the incessant pass-and-move routine of Guardiola’s side.
Wenger will have to make some changes to his line-up to have greater energy on the pitch as the opponents didn’t play in the middle of the week.
I’d like to see,
Fabianksi – Sagna, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Monreal – Arteta, Cazorla, Flamini – AOC, Giroud, Podolski.
I think Szczesny deserves to be dropped for his mistake and disciplined for that flippant, disrespectful, and unjustified gesture. But I’ll be very surprised if Wenger actually keeps him out.
In midfield, many fans don’t like the Arteta-Flamini duo. I think they can work well together as long as the roles are clear. If executed well, they should be able to take the pressure of the four attacking players and the full-backs in such a game, which should leave Arsenal with enough attacking options and width.
Chamberlain should start if he is fit or Gnabry could deputize. Rosicky is another option on the right.
Wilshere and Sanogo ran a lot against Bayern and could do with a break. As did Flamini but he just seems stronger and fitter.
Three of Sunderland last five visits to the Emirates have ended in goalless draws. A point will help their cause but not the Gunners’. If any points are dropped in this game, it’ll be a bigger disappointment than the defeats against Liverpool and Bayern or the draw against United. A win will buy Arsenal some breathing room.
Follow @goonerdesi
Thoughts On Liverpool and Manchester United Games
February 12, 2014That was the perfect storm, if there can be such a thing on a football pitch.
Arsenal’s individual and tactical mistakes all came to the fore in the just right manner to accentuate Liverpool’s corresponding strengths. Throw in a tiny but crucial dollop of luck for the home side and you get the recipe for a disastrous spell of football from Arsenal’s point of view. For Liverpool it must have been a dream come true.
The first goal is so important in these games. Conceding in the first minute is essentially the worst start a team can make. Look back at the goal and a number of minor details stand out. It started with a throw-in deep inside Liverpool territory. The ball flew over two visiting players who both misread the power of the throw. What if one of them had just got a glance on it to knock it out for a throw?
Even then, it went straight to Mertesacker who could have easily lumped it forward to eliminate any possibility of immediate danger. What if someone gave him a shout to say Suarez was sneaking in behind just as the big German let the ball run across his body in a way that made face his own goal? On another day the assistant ref might have flagged Skrtel offside. Thinking of other days, we’ve certainly seen Arsenal defend such set-pieces better.
Everything fell in place for Liverpool at the start and it just got worse for the Gunners. I didn’t expect Arsenal to win this game, that much should have been clear from the pre-game write-up that mentioned the likelihood of the Reds scoring two or more among other details, but I didn’t expect such a tame collapse from Wenger’s side either.
There are some interesting aspects to discuss from that 20 minute phase of play,
1) Liverpool’s intensity and efficiency.
Rodgers has most likely realized that he doesn’t have the players to perform in a possession based system. It seems to me he’s changed his philosophy from a Barcelona-esque death by possession routine to Dortmund’s waspish stinging rhythm. And it’s working for them.
Normally, if a team scores 4 goals in the first 20 minutes, one would think they had all the play. For instance, Arsenal’s dominance over Napoli was clearly reflected in the passing stats.
Click to enlarge
Click to enlarge
Almost three times the total passes and an even greater ratio for those in the final third shows Arsenal were completely on top. From this degree of superiority, Arsenal managed three shots, all on target, and two goals (While many couldn’t find enough superlatives to describe the Gunners that day, I think I was one of the few who thought Arsenal were inefficient in that game!)
Guess how the figures look in this game,
Click to enlarge
Click to enlarge
Once the risk-reward equation changed for both sides after the opening goal, Liverpool could play a counter-attacking game that best suits their players. Even then scoring 4 goals from those kind of passing numbers is just mind boggling. Liverpool were ruthlessly clinical.
Arsenal had similar number of passes in the final third and had two or three half-chances of their own. Giroud got into a great position in the second minute itself. Monreal got in behind once that resulted in a corner and on another occasion Mertesacker’s header went wide of the far post. If Skrtel’s header had been a few inches higher and the German’s effort had sneaked in, it would have been 1-1 after 15 minutes. That’s how fine the margins can be.
I’m not saying the Gunners deserved to be level, mind. Far from it. The difference between the sides was just too big. But the hosts scored 4 goals and created another 4 good chances from 10 completed passes in the final third and a handful of well-taken set-pieces. Rodgers could not have scripted this himself.
I thought Liverpool’s main strength, which was augmented nicely by high quality free-kicks and corners, was the deadliness of their transitions. Speed of their attacking players was obviously important and very visible. That, however, was not the primary reason for their effectiveness. Sturridge and Suarez played in the reverse fixture too. Did they break free as often and with such impact?
The way they pressed and won the ball back in the central third of the pitch, along with Arsenal’s stunning tactical immaturity on a collective scale, formed the platform on which their quick and clinical players could perform to their strengths.
The way Henderson pressurized Özil into a mistake, the way Coutinho read an opportunity to intercept a pass, the zip with which Sterling and Suarez chased the ball, and the accuracy of their long passes, were all a key part of the equation. They took a fair amount of risk with such an approach because Arsenal could have found a way through with better play. Refer to the half-chances mentioned above and think what a bit more composure could have done for the Gunners. Nevertheless, it is important to be brave and Liverpool should get credit for their willingness to go for it. Wenger’s side made numerous mistakes but Rodgers can definitely claim that his side’s intensity forced many of those.
2) Arsenal’s tactical immaturity.
Okay, crazy things happen and you concede a goal in the first minute. Can’t change that but key is what do you do next? There’s still 89 minutes to play.
It’s simple. Pick up a copy of the Hitchhiker’s Guide To The Galaxy. In other words, Don’t Panic.
When a team is trying to raise the tempo and has a clear advantage in terms of pace and individual skills like dribbling and finishing, the smart choice for an opponent with technical advantage is to avoid a vertical end-to-end battle. Stay compact at the back, control the distance between the lines, but keep passing the ball to tire the opponents out.
Had Arsenal kept this game at 1-0 at the end of 20 minutes, things would begin to change. Liverpool didn’t have a particularly solid back four and their midfield isn’t made up of great defensive midfielders. Even their wide players have more of an attacking mindset. They’d have tired and gaps would have opened up.
One of the keys to success of the short passing game is to have many players around the ball so that you have more options to pass but also to close the ball down if it’s lost. Arsenal moved away from the basics and spread out way too much adding an unnecessary element of risk to their game while sacrificing control. The situation was exacerbated by incorrect choices on and off the ball as well as lapses in concentration.
The players at this level have to know that they must keep their cool at all times. Even at 2-0 down there is a lot to play for and they don’t have to get back into the game immediately. We’ve seen more composed performances from Arsenal against smaller teams this season. It seems they are not doing enough in the first half and then they raise the bar after the break to create the decisive moments. Had they trusted their quality and wrested tactical control from the hosts, they could still have come back into the game or at least gone down in a much more tightly fought contest.
3) Arsenal’s individual mistakes
When things go so horribly wrong, it can never be the fault of one or two players. Almost everyone had a role to play and they didn’t do it well enough. There were numerous errors, mostly minor ones, but the kind that came together to contribute to the perfect storm in conjunction with aspects discussed above.
For instance, Mertesacker could have cleared that ball or simply headed it out for a throw. Koscielny could have done better to mark Skrtel for the second goal. Giroud could have done more with the chance he had early on. And so on…
Having said that, I’d still say two players were chief culprits in this game. That both are exceptionally skillful and were probably trying very hard to help the team cannot be an excuse.
Özil’s mistakes were obvious. He lost the ball for the third and fourth goals as well as a chance for Sturridge. The German magician is a lot of things but he is not a guy who is going to shrug of an physical pressure from an opponent with any amount of ease. The fact that he dropped deep to pick up the ball showed his desire to get involved but it also exposed the team.
There was a time, a few years ago, when Fabregas used to start as the highest midfielder. If the opponents pressed hard, Cesc would drop back and that would be that. It was extremely rare that he’d lose the ball. That was a natural part of his game. It is not the same with Özil.
The point here is not to say one is better than the other but to identify differences in playing style and understand its impact on the patterns of play. The probability of potentially lethal turnovers increases significantly if the German drops deep in midfield against a team that is set up to play on quick transitions.
In keeping with the calmer and more mature tactical approach to the game discussed above, Arsenal should have ensured that Özil plays higher up the pitch. On his part, the star signing should have showed greater awareness to danger which would be visible in safer choices on the ball and greater concentration. For instance, he could have played the ball back and wide towards Koscielny when Henderson was pressing him instead of trying to hold on to it and beat his man when the defence was exposed. Similarly, the two misplaced passes that led to a goal and a big chance were both with his right foot. I’d love to know how often he uses that appendage and whether his success with that varies significantly when compared to his natural foot. He has to weigh up the options in a highly risk averse manner if he wants to pass with his weaker foot in those areas.
Then there’s Jack Wilshere. Regular readers know I don’t see the youngster as a finished article many claim he is. And I don’t see him as a great option deeper in midfield, particularly in tough games. This article brilliantly articulates many of my common gripes against England’s next great hope in a manner I cannot. I strongly recommend reading it if you haven’t already done so.
The boy is undoubtedly talented. He produces many positive moments for the team. I don’t doubt his commitment or desire even for a moment. But he doesn’t seem to fully understand the impact of his movement and choices on the balance of the team.
Özil dropping deep was inextricably linked to Wilshere moving up. In games against smaller teams that can work well as we saw against Villa when the German put Monreal in behind and Wilshere was able to advance forward to finish the chance. Against a team better prepared to defend the centre line and one with the ability to punish mistakes, this is a recipe for disaster.
Part of it is of course down to the manager’s choices as I’ve no doubt Wenger encourages Wilshere to get forward and express his attacking qualities. However, knowing when to move forward and where to go is just as important as the skills he has on the ball. Right now Wilshere gets into areas that would be better left for his more creative and effective teammates far too often. The tendency to dwell on the ball or try too much when quicker, better options are available doesn’t help either.
Couple this with his inability to read the defensive aspects of the game consistently and you’ve a player who compromises the output of the team at both ends. Look at the fourth goal. After Özil plays the pass, Wilshere takes a step and half while Coutinho takes four steps to nick it. The Brazilian is anticipating that pass and is on the move. Wilshere is looking around and doesn’t realize he is best placed to receive that ball. Nor is he aware that the central defenders are about 20 yards behind him and have another 40-50 unprotected yards behind them. Had he done so, Wilshere would have gone for that ball and not backed out of the challenge. He had to hold possession or break that play up. There was no other choice.
For the sake of his development and long term future at Arsenal, I hope Wilshere learns the little tactical details that separate a great potential from a great player.
There are many more details that can be discussed but I think these three points cover the bulk. The rest of the game was incidental. Arsenal will get a chance to set things right in the FA Cup tie. Hopefully, the Gunners will have learned their lesson but I’ll only believe it when I see it.
Manchester United – Something’s Gotta Give
Arsenal have only 1 win from their last 10 games against United. Granted, the Ferguson era seems so far away based on United’s current form that such stats can be rendered meaningless. But the reverse fixture showed us that something akin to tactical memory can be enough to force an adverse result. The Red Devils know how to play against Arsenal and there aren’t many teams in the Premier League who remain so steadfastly loyal to their style as the Gunners are under Wenger. Consequently, there is always a chance that United will grind out a result.
On the other hand, Moyes has not won an away game against the erstwhile big four in 48 attempts. It’s hard to imagine he’ll break that record given their recent struggles.
Will Arsenal break United’s stranglehold over them or will Moyes break his duck?
Just as I’ve said about some Arsenal players in the past and even in this article, there is a feeling in my mind that Moyes is trying too hard. He needs to go back to the basics and make his team hard to beat. For large periods, the ability to negate the opposition in order to keep clean sheets was one of Ferguson’s biggest weapons. Moyes has done that with Everton often enough for us to know he can do it. If you can’t win, don’t lose. And if you don’t lose, you give yourself a good chance of winning.
United have to follow Liverpool’s template with a few adjustments. They don’t have the same pace on the break but the technical quality of their attackers, particularly Van Persie, Mata, and Rooney, is exceptional. They can score from half chances and create something out of nothing.
A lot of teams, including Ferguson’s United and Moyes’ Everton, have had success against Arsenal (in relative terms) by controlling the central portion of the pitch in their half. They don’t let the Gunners come into those vital creative zones but instead force them wide. Do it consistently and it severely limits the quality and quantity of chances Arsenal can create which can lead to frustration and riskier moves. It’s a lot of hard work but is not exactly rocket science, which is a way to say it can be done with discipline and determination.
For Arsenal, the key will be in finding the right balance in midfield. It’s very likely that Wilshere will again start in a deeper role in midfield. If so, the points discussed above could again come to the fore. The Gunners have to keep things tight and ensure they don’t concede the first goal. Patience and belief in their own ability to break through later in the game can make the decisive difference.
It could be useful if Sagna stayed a bit deeper and narrow instead of camping on the flank 10 yards inside the opposition half when the ball is on the other side.
I feel De Gea is not very comfortable with low shots very close to his body. Getting his hands down hasn’t worked well so he’s started kicking those balls away. It remains a suboptimal solution and I hope the Gunners test him on that.
In the other penalty box, Wenger’s side will have to be wary of United’s deep crosses. My dislike for crossing as a tactic is well documented on this blog but the response to Moyes’ tactics and United’s current plight has brought this issue into the spotlight now. That said, Arsenal are not particularly good at winning the second or third ball in the box from open play. Few teams get enough players forward to test Arsenal on this but don’t be surprised if back post crosses or even deeper ones trouble the Gunners in this game.
Wenger talked about not making too many changes and trusting the players he has. It’s usually good to have a couple of changes at least, just to have some fresh legs if nothing else, but it’s hard to see where the changes can be made.
We might see,
Szczesny – Sagna, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Gibbs – Arteta, Özil, Wilshere – AOC, Giroud, Cazorla.
Rosicky can be a big player but where does he fit in? In place of Wilshere or Chamberlain? I’m not entirely sure why Wenger doesn’t play Rosicky deep in central midfield anymore these days because he does a decent job when he drifts into those areas.
Arsenal’s record in big games is not very good and it’s understandable why many fans will be apprehensive about a collapse from the Gunners. Then again, Wenger’s side have recovered from disappointing defeats on more than one occasion this season and that certainly gives hope to those that believe the team can win the title.
I’m not completely sure how this season will end. Can Arsenal win the title and will Arsenal win the title are two separate questions. The answer to the first one is obviously yes. The team has the capability to win it. That isn’t always enough because others are capable too. Answering the second question is much harder. The same questions can be raised about this game and the response won’t be any different.
Follow @goonerdesi9 Comments | Comment | Permalink
Posted by desigunner