Premier League Table – A Different Perspective

This article was also published on 11Gunners.

Two weeks ago Arsenal were 11 points behind Chelsea, 6 behind United, and written off by many pundits and fans who had lost patience. In these two weeks the leaders have lost the moneybags derby and drawn at home to Everton. Villa have taken three points at Old Trafford. Suddenly, everyone who had written us off is scrambling to save face.

One important aspect that most people, especially pundits, tend to forget is the game in hand. I thought that given the tight nature of the league this year and our points disadvantage due to having played a game less, it would be interesting to look at the premier league table in a different light.

The following table focuses on the matches drawn, lost and points dropped. This gives a different perspective to the gap between the teams and shows how close the teams really are. I have taken only the top 7 teams as they cover a broad enough range and are generally believed to be competing for the top spots.

Comparing EPL teams on the basis of points dropped

(c) DesiGunner

Legend: M – Matches; D – Draws; L – Losses; H – Home; A – Away; PD – Points Dropped; T – Total; GD – Goal Difference; %PD – PD as Percentage of Total Points Available; D+L/M – % Games Where Points Were Dropped; PT – Predicted Tally (Based on Same Form)

All columns are quite intuitive except perhaps %PD and D+L/M. %PD is the percentage of points a team has dropped. Arsenal have dropped 14 points out of a total of 45 (15*3), which is just over 30 per cent. The second last column (D+L/M) shows the percentage of games where a team drops points. Chelsea have 25 percent meaning they either draw or lose once every 4 games. Arsenal, on the other hand, fail to win once every 3 games.

Some people believe that Chelsea are clear leaders. Can any team that drops points every fourth game be invincible? However, we can see their dominance from the fact that if the Blues can maintain similar stats till the end of the season, and drop only 23 percent of total points available, they will reach close to 88 points, which would be an achievement and most likely win them the league.

In this regard Arsenal need to make an improvement as we would only reach 79 points based on our present record. United would be around the 81 point mark. Of course, these percentages can change drastically with a couple of losses or a run of wins.

It’s interesting to note that teams from fourth onwards have a D+L/M value of 50 percent or more. In other words, these teams fail to win one in two games or worse. Villa, who have defeated United and Chelsea, have only managed to win half their matches. Citeh, after spending hundreds of millions, are only winning 40 percent of their games. This is the best reflection of how tight the league is this year.

It’s not difficult to understand why Arsene believes that top teams will drop more points this year. Consider our league position with this perspective and there is enough reason to have faith in Wenger and his young squad. We just need a little more consistency.

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12 Responses to Premier League Table – A Different Perspective

  1. Augustus says:

    YOUR table does not take into account the fact that some teams have played 15 games while others have played 16.

    Arsenal will win the game in hand and will therefore have stats. exactly like what Man u have.

    • desigunner says:

      The matches column indicates that Arsenal and Citeh have played 15 games and the rest have played 16. The ratios have also been calculated accordingly.

      I have only presented the facts without speculating on what will happen with the game in hand.

  2. Shillong Gunner says:

    Indians may not be good at football but they sure are with math and statistics….

    I just wanna comment on something, lol…

  3. ashish says:

    I thimk the most important reason why pundits are writing arsenal off is the lack of consistancy for the past 4 years.
    whereas teams like united have improved there consistancy as the season goes on.
    But i think this year will be a little bit different for us as we are more consistant this season.
    At the end of the season the thing that will matter is how many points we get against the big teams……….

  4. bobbygee says:

    I have said this since the seaosn began. The EPL champ will have anywhere between between four and six losses. I think it may go as high seven. This year will be a real dog fight. Expect the unexpected. City, Villa, and Spurs have a real good shot at winning it.
    The Gunners have a real good shot at winning the title. Why? The Liverpool match was the turning pint in the season. Arsenal finally played with heart. The Gunners fell behind and instead of quiting sucked it up and won. This is huge.
    http://bobbygee.wordpress.com/

  5. Mos-a says:

    Nice to see an Indian perspective on the Arsenal. This is the first time I’ve seen new types of stats and that was an interesting read.
    Here’s an interesting stat – Sunday’s win at Anfield was the first time since Pires scored the winner for us that ANY team has come from behind to win a game in the league.

  6. Mos-a says:

    Forgot to add – the first time since the unbeaten season when Pires scored the winner for us that any team has come from behind to win at Anfield. 🙂

  7. s says:

    i am so confused.. who is indian? and what does that have to do with Arsenal and the league table?

  8. Paul C. says:

    Not quite sure how your tables show anything new or different from the normal league table. Your table is actually wrong because we should be ahead of Utd on goal difference (which would be reflected in the “real” table if we won our game in hand) if you are building a table based on “points dropped”.

    Lots of effort to show not much at all. You could have just taken the “real” table, divided each teams points by games played and then multiplied by 38 to get the same number (which is how it would be normally done).

    • desigunner says:

      Yes, I had us ahead of United but then decided to sort it based on the predicted tally as that looked more relevant.

      I also agree that the predicted tally can be calculated by using the points per game ratio. I used the percentages as I had already calculated them and was quite interested in the results.

      To me there is a subtle difference between our position and that of United. It’s not as big as 3 points and I find it simplistic and speculative to say that we will be above them IF we win the game in hand. I thought the subtlety was neatly captured by the last three columns.

      All the data is from the EPL table and I am not claiming that factually it’s any different from the real table. I found this a better way of looking at the table so I have shared it. I am sorry if your expectations were not met. Perhaps, I should have explained the small things in the write up.

      Thanks for your feedback, I always appreciate constructive criticism.

  9. Kieth Pelter says:

    Many thanks for that, lasted just over a cup of coffee for me to read!

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