Arsenal 4 – 1 Wigan: Match Thoughts And Individual Analysis

May 16, 2013

There were no surprises in Arsene Wenger’s team selection and, thankfully, there were none on the pitch either. It wasn’t a perfect game from the Gunners but an eight minute spell of exceptional efficiency and clinical finishing settled the game midway through the second half.

It followed patterns that we’ve seen in many recent games so I won’t dwell on them. Arsenal controlled the opening exchanges and dictated the tempo early on. But they didn’t really convert that into quality chances and the goal came from an unexpected source, a corner. Wigan’s defending was terrible and will probably be identified as the chief reason of their troubles this season. In most other Arsenal games, I’ve seen such corners gobbled up by the Keeper or easily header clear by the defenders. Balls put in so close to the goal have rarely troubled the opponents leave alone result in goals.

In this game it came all the way to Podolski who was left unmarked. The German showed good composure even when the manner of scoring was not his speciality. How many headers has he scored in his entire career?

The hosts slowly relinquished control over the tie after the goal. Wigan started seeing a lot more of the ball in advanced territories from midway through the first half to the end. But Wenger’s team remained defensively compact and dealt with any danger. Szczesny was largely untroubled.

Only that one ball over the top of the defence comes to mind but Koscielny found a way to clear the threat.

I thought Arsenal were defending with a clear 4-1-4-1 shape which seemed a change from their usual approach as Arteta sat really deep in midfield just in front of the defence whereas the other midfielders formed a line a few yards in front of him.

The Spaniard’s positioning meant it was difficult for Wigan to build anything through the middle and Kone’s influence was minimized as he can drop deep to receive the ball and hold play while other join in.

The discipline of the four in front of him and structural integrity achieved through that also limited openings for Wigan to exploit. It’s worth noting that the visitors actually had more possession, played more passes, and had greater passing accuracy than the hosts, but they couldn’t create many chances.

Their goal came from a soft free-kick. I’m sure Arsene would have complained about it if points had been dropped. Maloney’s strike was superb but I was surprised Podolski didn’t jump. I’d think the wall needs greatest height at the far end where the goalkeeper would find it hardest to cover. Anyway, that’s one for the coaches to analyze.

Wigan came out with greater purpose in the second half as if their late equalizer had instilled genuine belief. Kone had their best chance early in the second period when a seemingly fortuitous one-two put him through. Szczesny did well to close the angle and made a convincing save.

Arsenal were not really getting control of the ball or territory in the second period but they started exploiting the space behind Wigan’s defence, particularly with attacks originating down the right side behind Espinoza.

First, Walcott fed Cazorla who couldn’t score with two good attempts, probably the only blot on his otherwise impeccable worksheet for the day. Then Rosicky played Theo in behind but he could not find enough power or precision with his shot after choosing to ignore Podolski’s run that was marked well by Boyce.

Soon after, the Gunners did take the lead. This time it was Cazorla making a run down the right. It’s worth noting the interchange of positions between the players as Theo had gone central with Podolski wide on the left. Arsenal played eight passes in the build-up to that goal and stretched the play horizontally before going vertical. Nonetheless, it was again terrible defending and goalkeeping that cost the visitors.

If that was bad defending, very little should be said about the mess they created for the third. Szczesny’s long ball was headed into the danger area by Alcaraz. Meanwhile, Scharner had dropped a good five yards deeper despite no Arsenal player making a run. Cazorla’s header was deftly cushioned but completely unchallenged. In the same manner, Podolski’s clip was predatory and superbly executed but way too easy for this level.

The fourth came from a simple ball down the left flank that caught the entire Wigan defence unawares. Espinoza played Ramsey onside. The Welshman’s finish was emphatic and brilliantly disguised.

The Gunners could then relax as the visitors had lost their appetite for the fight they were clearly losing.

All teams face the problem of balance. Wigan have troubled the Gunners when they’ve been able to defend deep for long periods. I was surprised they opened up so soon in this game. Playing it tight and throwing everything forward in the last 10 minutes would have been a much better tactic for them. Their confidence in the second half proved their undoing. Kone’s missed chance was also vital. At 1-2 up they could have reverted to a deep defence and might have shut the Gunners out as they did last season.

That Arsenal conceded was not a surprise, but I was impressed by the way they limited the visitors’ chances despite conceding possession. The team’s defensive shape and the choices made by individuals was commendable. As was the manner in which they covered for each other. There were times when I saw the likes of Gibbs and Walcott pop up deep in the Arsenal penalty box on the right side to make tackles and recoveries. A good defence has to be a team effort and the Gunners seem to be improving slowly but steadily.

Individual Performances:

Szczesny: Don’t know if the coaches will fault him for the shape and positioning of the wall. Good save from Kone. Distribution was average.

Sagna: Most of Arsenal’s threats came down the right and the Frenchman played a good unobtrusive supporting role as he was there to help but stayed out of the way of the creative players. Had very little to do defensively in the first half as Wigan focussed on the other flank. Received useful cover from teammates in the second.

Mertesacker: Made some important tackles around the edge of the box and his positioning was consistently good. His only mistake was probably the occasion he went to ground to make an interception near the centre line. It opened space up for Wigan and resulted in McCarthy’s goal that was just marginally off-side. Didn’t see as much of the ball as he usually does because the Gunners conceded possession.

Koscielny: Made a couple of big interventions in the box. Should probably have scored from the corner that fell to him invitingly. Steady game on the whole.

Gibbs: Did a good job on McManaman and kept Wigan’s most creative player quiet. Passing wasn’t as reliable as Arsene would want from his full-back and made a very limited contribution in the attacking areas.

The back five had a good game without being spectacular, but they didn’t really have to produce anything special. The team defended as a unit and they remained well protected for most of the game.

Arteta: Gave away some fouls, one of which resulted in the Wigan goal, but you could wonder if another referee would have called those. Passing was below par but it was his positioning and tendency to drop back into the defensive line which often plugged crucial holes and forced play away from the danger zones.

Rosicky: Showed good energy, particularly early on. Defensive contribution was noteworthy from a discipline point of view as he protected some central areas that Wigan seem to favour. The quick turn and through-ball for Walcott was the most eye-catching moment of the game for me.

Ramsey: Here, there, everywhere, and pretty effective. Saw a lot of the ball and made telling contributions at both ends of the pitch. Took his goal really well while constantly looking/faking to cut the ball back.

Cazorla: Four assists! And different ones too. I wonder if he’s ever picked up an assist with his head before. Was a constant source of inspiration for the Gunners that turned lethal once Wigan pushed up and lost control over their shape and distances. Defensive work rate on the left was also exceptional and he helped deal with McManaman (Is it a coincidence that Arsenal picked up three quick goals soon after the youngster was taken off?). MotM in my opinion.

Walcott: Picked his moments to move inside carefully and stayed wide often to exploit the space available. This Wigan defence, particularly in the second half, was perfect for him as they were wide open with huge gaps between the lines and individuals. Credit to him for using the opportunity as he linked well with Cazorla and Rosicky. Converted his chance without a fuss, even if there was an element of luck to it. Defensive contribution deserves a mention.

I thought the midfield deserves bulk of the credit for this win not only because of their contribution to the goals but also for their effort in front of the defence. A while back it wouldn’t have been hard to imagine this Wigan side playing one-twos and constantly exploiting the gaps in front and behind the defence. In this game the midfielders cut out almost any opportunity for the visitors to develop their combinations and thus left the back four with a very manageable task.

Podolski: Took both his goals really well to reaffirm his status as the best finisher at the club. Still far from his best in this role but the goals should help his confidence and that of his teammates. His horizontal movement was good and he often dropped back to add bodies in the middle.

Subs: They came on after the game was virtually over.

Wenger: Should be pleased with this win. The performance was far from ideal but it carries some encouraging trends forward. The team certainly looks much more balanced than it did at the start of the season. However, one big test still remains before any real plaudits can be handed out.


Thoughts On Tactics And Starting Eleven Against Wigan

May 14, 2013

Congratulations to Wigan for their FA Cup success. Regular readers know they’re one of my favourite teams from among the so-called smaller clubs. Martinez is an impressive young manager and his players have produced some entertaining, high quality football over the years. It’s good to see their work rewarded.

Cup ties are inherently of a knockout nature meaning both teams have to go for a win. But in the League it’s rare that both teams face an absolute must win situation and that too at the opposite ends of the table. You might argue that the Gunners would still have a chance of finishing in the top four if they didn’t win this one, but in my opinion the team that doesn’t win this game will see it’s League hopes crushed. For Wigan, that would mean relegation, while Arsenal will more than likely miss out on the coveted Champions League spot.

This is another game where the view you take is likely to depend on your mentality.

The Latics are renowned for their late comebacks to survive in the League (they’ve won the last two games of the previous two seasons) and a win at the Emirates (something they achieved last season) will give them a genuine chance of pulling it off again. One could argue the Cup win will lift them and the players will find extra energy and motivation. Momentum can be a strong positive force in football.

Someone else might say they’ll be tired and could suffer from a hangover of success and celebrations whereas the Gunners will come into this game feeling revitalized due to a noteworthy break in schedule.

I think we’ll see a committed game from both sides and any side-effects of Wigan’s weekend heroics will only be visible in the later stages of the game, if at all.

There is an interesting pattern to the games between the two sides. Apart from Arsenal’s 0-1 win earlier this season at the DW stadium, the Gunners have not won against Wigan by a single goal margin going back to 2009. Either Arsenal win big (1-4, 4-0, 3-0, 0-4) or they drop points. Wigan have won with scores of 3-2 and 1-2 in this period while also picking up a 2-2 draw. In other words, either Arsenal win relatively easily or they drop points, even lose the game.

The win in the reverse fixture bucked this trend somewhat and Arsenal’s recent tentative but resilient performances suggest that it could be another close encounter. Wenger will hope that his side can scrape together enough goals to win this one. He’ll want a clean sheet but I doubt he’ll get one.

It could be a question of who makes the least defensive mistakes and which side takes its chances.  Arsenal’s problems against the Latics have generally resulted from individual or collective defensive weaknesses. Whether it’s counter-attacks like last season or set-pieces from an earlier time, the visitors will provide multiple offensive threats that have to be dealt with in a consistent and reliable manner.

Martinez has built a side that can retain possession and build attacks. That doesn’t mean they’re likely to match Arsenal’s possession or passing statistics but they will be able to pass it when they win the ball back. This gives them a chance to construct more meaningful attacks compared to the kick-and-hope outfits. It was visible in the FA Cup final when they spent a lot of time in front of their own penalty box but always looked a threat when going forward.

Kone is an intelligent striker who shows for the ball and can hold it or lay it off quickly. He makes useful runs into the channels and can get on the end of crosses or through-balls. The youngster McManaman provides guile and pace on the flank. I like the way he shifts his weight to trick defenders with numerous feints.

Martinez also seems to get the best out of Maloney who can cut inside and join the striker, particularly when McManaman goes in behind. Gomez is inconsistent but has an eye for goal. Espinoza has been a handy acquisition and adds to the threat from their left flank. Their midfielders are steady players who can occasionally step up and make a difference with shots from distance or on counter-attacks.

The Gunners will have a tough time defending their flanks on quick transitions and the full-backs will need a fair amount of support.

I find it hard to categorize Wigan defensively. They can have anywhere from 2 to 6 defenders in a line. 3 is the usual number, but when they drop back and the ball goes wide the defensive line can have as many as six players, thus cutting out spaces. Some of these players push up when the attack is through the middle and that way they have layers and covering players to protect the vital central areas. In such cases the gap between their lines is almost non-existent.

There are mistakes in their defence and Arsenal should get chances if they can play at a fast enough tempo but the Gunners will need greater lateral movement in front of the Wigan backline and more penetrating runs in behind. Otherwise it could again be a case of a lot of possession at one end and the dangerous chances at the other. An early goal for Arsenal can open the game up but it could also leave the Gunners in a tactically confused state, not knowing whether to push forward or step back.

Wenger has most of his players available. It’s tough to predict his choices for this game but I have a feeling it will be the same team that started against QPR with Gibbs coming in for Monreal. The Spaniard struggled against Townsend and it’s not difficult to imagine McManaman running rings around him. Hopefully, Gibbs will be fit. If nothing else, he has greater pace to recover.

Fabianski is fit again but I doubt Wenger will take Szczesny out of the starting line-up.

We might see,

Szczesny – Sagna, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Gibbs – Ramsey, Rosicky, Arteta – Walcott, Podolski, Cazorla.

I’d be tempted to find a place for Gervinho or Oxlade-Chamberlain because having a player who can dribble is useful against a deep-lying defence. But both those players bring their own set of weaknesses to the side and affect the balance. As I’ve noted before, there isn’t an obvious correct answer here and the result could vindicate a choice or make it look stupid.

Finding a way to use Podolski’s skills and getting him into scoring positions or areas where he can play penetrating one-twos could be vital.

This is probably not what you want to read but I expect the Gunners to drop points in at least one of their remaining two fixtures. Unless Wigan crumble, Arsenal will need two, maybe three, goals to win this game. They’ve not scored more than once in their last four fixtures…


QPR 0 – 1 Arsenal: Match Thoughts And Individual Analysis

May 5, 2013

20 Seconds! Wow!

Arsenal have been starting games well off late but this was something special. If I’m not mistaken, QPR only had one touch after kick-off before Walcott slotted the ball home. That was a bad one though, and a big part of the problem for the hosts, as Traore headed a ball straight across the face of his penalty area.

For the Gunners, a number of small details fell into place, or you could say the players chose the right options and executed them well. For instance, Rosicky could have stood the ball up in the penalty box but he measured his cross and found Ramsey. The Welshman could have attempted an ambitious header towards goal from there but instead he chose to head it back towards Arteta who’d also joined the attack. The Spaniard picked the right through-ball and Walcott did the rest.

It was an excellent team goal. Gareth Bale’s late long-range strikes can be very exciting to watch but a well-worked early goal is just as effective.

After the goal the game just went flat. That was the unfortunate bit. You could sense the psychological problem that Wenger talked about was having an effect. Arsenal were not really sure whether to go all out for a second goal or to play with a more conservative approach. Wenger talked about this after the game,

Overall we played a little bit conscious that points were vital and we could not make any mistake. It was detrimental to our offensive game

I have talked about this problem throughout the season so I don’t want to dwell on it any further. I don’t expect it to change this season.

A few other points are worth noting. As I’d mentioned in the preview, City, Chelsea, Spurs, and Everton had all picked up just one point from this fixture. It was not an easy game. The margins are very small at this level and it’s important to understand the doubts that players can have and the impact those doubts can have on the result.

It’s easier to appreciate the performance with that in mind. Arsenal had not won in five visits to this ground and they’d not scored more than 1 goal against QPR in any of their last 3 meetings since the R’s were promoted in 2011.

As I’d said in the preview, a clean sheet was going to be vital to success. Sometimes perception is also affected by the timing of the goal. Many fans would have been euphoric if the game had been won with a spectacular goal in injury time. We start preparing our minds for a disappointment and a late turnaround is such a boost. An early goal, on the other hand, builds expectations right up. If the rest of the period is more about grinding a result out with a few nervy moments thrown in, the euphoria is lost.

Whether this team is good enough to compete for the title next season or not is utterly irrelevant at this moment, particularly in the context of this game and the importance of the points. But the nervous period gives everyone enough time to think and fret over it.

The quality of football played wasn’t very good. Both sides were pretty average. The hosts showed why they got relegated whereas Arsenal played it safe and spluttered forward in second gear.

QPR had a couple of decent chances but they did not have a single shot on target from inside the Arsenal box.

QPR All Attempts

The Gunners defended the vital areas really well. I thought the central defenders took responsibility and did a very good job. Part of the problem for Arsenal has been that they have a tendency to concede soft goals and drop points in such games. It’s happened so often that the memories of those games takes away any joy fans can get from such a performance as the time is spent dreading a wicked deflection or a dubious penalty call or an absolute howler from an individual or two.

In this game the odds of that happening were very low even if most of us didn’t feel that way. Arsenal weren’t anywhere near great from a defensive point of view but they were mostly steady with good concentration and the work rate showed a genuine desire to keep a clean sheet. There are times when I watch the defending and think,” it wasn’t very good, they just got lucky.” That was not the case in this game. Szczesny had a couple of saves to make but they were the kind that most keepers make routinely. The fact that many fans thought he was the man of the match just shows how flawed perceptions impact opinion.

The defenders won almost all of their aerial duels, which is often an Achilles’ heel.

Aerial Duels V QPR

The hosts attempted a number of balls in behind the defence but the Keeper and the central defenders showed good understanding of situations and dealt with these without much alarm. QPR played with two strikers and Arteta did an excellent job of supporting the defence ensuring that the central defenders were not isolated against the strikers.

Arteta Defensive Dashboard

Arsenal’s attack could have been better. It’s been an issue all season if you leave out the uncharacteristic high scoring games. The players still don’t read each other’s movements well. For instance, there was a moment when Rosicky picked up the ball on the left flank, Podolski took up a good position just inside the penalty box to the left of centre, the Czech played it to his feet and the German was able to receive and hold off the pressure from the defender.

Then Little Mozart made a straight run expecting Podolski to roll the ball back to his left from where he’d have had a good chance of shooting. The German thought Rosicky will run in behind and laid the ball off towards his right and behind the defence. The move completely broke down. A lot of details were good, particularly the way Podolski received and held on to the ball in that area. The understanding just wasn’t there.

There were many other occasions where a similar argument could be made. Better quality always helps and I hope Wenger is able to add to the squad strength but at the moment that is not the primary problem. Any newcomer won’t be able to help the team if the players show tactical confusion, indecision, or don’t read each other’s play.

I do think the next two games will be tougher than this one and we’ll have to see if the defence can hold as firm in those.

Individual Performances:

Szczesny: Made a couple of good saves and there was that one occasion when he just diverted the ball away from a striker’s head. It’s sad that people don’t think this is a normal day for a goalkeeper.

Sagna: Did a good job of blocking some crosses and made a few useful clearances. Was a much easier game for him when compared to the previous one. Saw a lot of the ball and was reliable in possession.

Mertesacker: Got his foot in at the right moment on more than one occasion, won all his aerial duels, and made some much needed clearances. Passing accuracy was probably low because of the fact that QPR had two strikers and they didn’t give the central defenders enough time on the ball.

Koscielny: As is usual, he was again the busier of the two central defenders. Had many more duels to contest and he also made a couple of useful blocks. Stuck close to Remy when the striker moved wide and limited the impact he could have from those areas. Did a decent job of covering behind Monreal.

Monreal: Was probably the only defender who had a tough day. Townsend was able to get past him with relative ease. Should have compensated for pace by better positioning but he couldn’t quite pull it off.

As mentioned above, the central defenders had good games. Teams with two strikers have troubled Arsenal at times this season but in this game they dealt with the situation well. Similarly, ball over the top are a long standing weakness but they made the right choices and communication appeared to be clear and precise.

Arteta: Very good assist and excellent supporting work in front of the defence. MOTM in my opinion.

Rosicky: Another one who made a useful defensive contribution, particularly in the central third of the pitch. Work rate was very good and he saw a lot of the ball but wasn’t able to find the unlock the defence despite getting into some promising positions.

Ramsey: Probably worked harder than anyone else and was all over the pitch adding the extra body where needed. But I also noticed a number of mistakes in his game, like that minute in the first half where he twice lost the ball because he wasn’t alert to someone closing him down from behind. Over time he’ll learn to pick and chose his moments to join the attack and will divert some of his energy into looking around the pitch and reading the game a bit better in order to have greater meaningful influence on the game.

Cazorla: Pretty good by normal standards, below par by his own. Exhaustion seems to be part of the problem and the lack of understanding with some teammates the other. Would like to see him get closer to Podolski, play on the defensive line, and even look to get in behind.

The midfield didn’t quite find the fluidity or penetration that we know they’re capable of. But they made up for it with defensive effort. Not a game they’ll talk to the grandkids about, but one they’ll be pleased with nonetheless.

Walcott: Another well-taken early goal. Also hit the post with a shot and forced decent saves with a couple more. I liked the fact that he was trying to take players on physically. For instance, the shot that he took from the left side came after holding off the defender while controlling a ball falling from a height. More is needed as he’s getting to his peak but improvements are visible. Wenger noted this too,

He has improved his ability to resist to pressure from the opponent.

Podolski: Often had to drop too deep to receive the ball, should be receiving more in and around the box. Made a couple of good runs down the left channel and Walcott will be disappointed he didn’t do better with one of his crosses. Doesn’t look like an Arsenal striker at the moment as the understanding with the others is missing and he also has a lot to learn about that role when playing against crowded defences.

Subs: The substitutes didn’t get enough time to make an impact.

Wenger: I’m convinced the attack is not to his liking at the moment but he probably can’t change much right now. Defenders did well in this game and that should be encouraging. The quest for balance and search for confidence continues.

PS: If you haven’t had a chance to read it yet, do spent a few minutes on my analysis of Bayern’s win over Barcelona. It’s more about a key territorial battle between the possession and counter-attacking styles and is relevant to Arsenal from both sides!


Thoughts On Tactics And Starting Eleven Against QPR

May 4, 2013

This game is a spin doctor’s dream. Consider the following

  • QPR have been relegated and have nothing to play for, their players lack motivation and have underperformed all season, so they’ll be lazy and disjointed.
  • The R’s are going down and have nothing more to lose so they’ll play without fear or pressure. The liberation would allow their talented players the opportunity to express themselves and they’ll be very dangerous.
  • The squad will surely be culled in the summer and many players who might leave will feel little connection with the club so they won’t perform anywhere close to their best.
  • This is a good opportunity for players to prove themselves and secure better transfers in the summer.

I can go on and on but you get the drift. One could build whatever narrative one feels like. As fans, sometimes we go by our feelings. A name like Manchester United makes us feel different than a name like QPR. There is almost a degree of entitlement involved when thinking about opponents at the wrong end of the table. A thought like, “It’s QPR! What’s the point in playing if you can even beat them!” might cross many minds.

But the fact is, these games are never as easy as we think because our mind perceives a greater gap between the teams due to the superlatives that we have to endure at all times. Wenger hit the nail on the head,

The Premier League is the Premier League and you don’t win 3-0 or 4-0 in many games. It is always tight.

QPR have lost only 1 home game out of 5 games against the other teams in the top 6. City, Chelsea, Spurs, and Everton have all drawn at Loftus Road. They’ve also won at Stamford Bridge!

Strangely enough, despite the respectable results against the bigger teams, QPR have the worst home record in the League with just 2 wins in 17 games while scoring just 12 goals in the process. That’s the other side of the story.

For Arsenal, these type of games inevitably boil down to terrible mistakes and Loftus Road has some bad juju! The Gunners have not won a Premier League game at that ground in 5 attempts. In the more recent and relevant games, since their re-entry in 2011, the teams have won home games by a single goal margin. The Gunners won the two games at the Emirates by a goal to nil but lost in the last visit by a goal to two. Unless the hosts give up and crumble, this game could again boil down to a single goal result.

At the back, Arsenal will have to deal with Remy’s pace and the individual skills of Taarabt. Pressing high up the pitch has improved in the recent past but will remain a risk if the defenders are isolated against quick and tricky players. I have a feeling Arsenal will need a clean sheet if they want to get three points from this game.

QPR’s organization, when they drop deep, is fairly good, ignore the impression their position in the table might give. Three of the aforementioned draws against the top six teams were goalless while both teams scored one when Everton visited Loftus Road. In other words, Chelsea, Spurs, Everton, and City have only scored 1 goal between them at this ground in 360 minutes of football!

I have a feeling the R’s are able to defend against the bigger teams because they might think a point is good enough and thus they don’t have to commit too many bodies to attack. That way the problem of balance doesn’t crop up and they remain relatively secure at the back. It could be a long, frustrating game for the Gunners if the hosts decide to stay deep, narrow, and organized. An early goal would make all the difference and the blazing tempo we’ve seen at the start of some games could come in really handy in this one.

I don’t think any of their defenders is individually outstanding but good structure and discipline can make up for that as they would cover for each other and close down the limited spaces in the central areas in front of goal. The Gunners might be forced wide and that old weakness could prove annoying again.

Podolski’s ability to play in tight spaces can be useful if Arsenal can get him on the ball and get players close to him. It’s not very hard to imagine Wilshere dribbling past one or two and then getting in behind by playing a one-two with the German. Poldi will have to deal with Samba’s physicality, which might be a new and substantial challenge for him.

Wenger might also want to consider if he wants to pick Walcott on the flank. Oxlade-Chamberlain or even Gervinho might offer better dribbling skills that could be needed against a deep and narrow defence. Theo, as we’ve seen all too often, doesn’t quite enjoy playing against such defences.

If it were up to me I’d also give Santi a break as he’s looked a touch off his best in recent games. A more direct winger or Rosicky could be used on the left. But I doubt Wenger will keep his most influential player out of the starting line-up, not with CL qualification at stake.

I’d like to see,

Szczesny – Sagna, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Gibbs – Arteta, Wilshere, Ramsey – Oxlade-Chamberlain, Podolski, Rosicky.

Has this front six ever played together this season? Probably not, but I feel they can do the job as long as the Gunners don’t rediscover their gifting instincts. History is not on Arsenal’s side and it might be a case where patience, spirit, and desire prove vital to success.

On an unrelated note, if you like the tactical analysis on this blog, make sure you read my previous post analyzing Bayern’s dominance over Barcelona. It also touches upon Arsenal’s games against Schalke and Bayern along with a couple of Dortmund ones. But mainly it’s about a key territory in the possession vs counter-attack battle. If Wenger’s side can learn from the Germans they could go a long way in many competitions.


The Key To Bayern’s Emphatic Triumph Over Barcelona

May 3, 2013

For many it’s the end of an era and a number of observers have witnessed a change of guard at the top of European football. There are also those who wish to be more patient and see how the vanquished respond.  Whether you belong to one of these categories or have an entirely different view, one thing is for certain, Bayern’s sheer dominance over Barcelona over two legs and the nature of their wins have given everyone some food for thought.

Few would have predicted the Germans will win both legs when the draw was made. I doubt even the proudest, most passionate of Bavarian fans would have expected their team to knock seven past Valdes without Neuer picking the ball out of his net even once. Something extraordinary has happened here.

I am sure by now you must have read a fair number of reports/analyses from different perspectives. Messi’s injury has obviously been a big factor. Vilanova’s long term absence due to his serious illness must surely have had an impact on the Barcelona squad given the fact that he was palpably, even if cautiously and slowly, trying to shift the team’s approach from the constant high intensity pressing we’d become accustomed to in the Guardiola reign. The lack of depth in the Catalan ranks, particularly in the centre of defence, is another valid reason. Key players might also be tired, mentally and physically, after years of consistency at the very top.

Of course, we must be careful not to dilute Bayern’s brilliance by listing Barcelona’s problems. The Germans were stronger, sharper, and smarter. They had clear ideas – for instance, the use of set-pieces and aerial strength in the box – and executed them excellently. Heynckes’ team have deservedly received praise for their pressing, organization, discipline, work ethic, counter-attacking, and other attributes.

I don’t want to go over these things again as many excellent writers have covered these in a manner beyond my current abilities. However, I do want to explore one particular angle that I found very interesting. It’s a very specific territorial battle that Bayern won in both games and thus denied Barcelona the chance to impose their trademark suffocating grip on the game.

Before I get into what Bayern did, allow me to note certain characteristics of Barcelona’s style that has made them one of the best club sides ever put together.

It is said that the defending side should try to make the pitch as small as possible while the attacking team should stretch the play. It’s widely accepted wisdom but sometimes we forget that the process of compressing the playing area and that of stretching it are physical acts where the players have to move around on the pitch and it takes time. And teams are often very vulnerable when they’re doing this because a quick transition can catch many players out of position.

Barcelona, in my opinion, have a very unique solution to this as they compress play and stretch it at the same time. By basing their game on a short passing style and by insisting that the man on the ball be always provided with multiple passing options, the Catalans ensure that they always have a number of bodies around the ball. At the same time, at least one wide player and/or their full-backs consistently offers width up the pitch.

The ability to understand and minimize the risk taken in possession has been a key to its successful execution and patience has been a vital attribute. As a result, when Barcelona did lose the ball they often had enough players who could immediately press as a unit and win the ball back within a matter of seconds (6 second rule?). Not only was the man on the ball put under pressure by two or three opponents, his passing options would be cut off by other Barcelona players who read the situations and swarmed in accordingly.

The team’s shape played a crucial part in bringing the excellent tactical ideas to fruition on the pitch. Once the team settled into its rhythm after the initial exchanges, we’d see the central defenders on the half-way line, Busquets a few yards in front of them moving into carefully judged spaces to keep the ball rolling, Xavi would be around him again creating and using space, Messi would drop deep or move across horizontally till he got a chance to run at the defence or play someone else in behind. The wider players played their part making intelligently timed diagonal/vertical runs or by holding their positions or by cutting inside.

The above is, without a doubt, a very simplified version of their tactics but it should rekindle memories of the patterns of play when Barcelona dominated games.

In order for these tactics to succeed there is a very specific area of the pitch that Barcelona have to control. Take a look at the following chart of their passes against Milan in the 4-0 win at the Camp Nou in the previous round.

Barcelona passes against Milan

It’s impossible to make sense of individual passes from that chart but we don’t need to. The density of passes is important. Most of it is just inside the Milan half. That’s the area where Barca set up their base camp before launching attacks. It’s the perfect territory for the likes of Xavi and Busquets to control possession and dictate the tempo.

This is so because they need to stay at an ideal (short) distance from the central defenders who have to be on the centre line. Opposition strikers can be on the halfway line without being offside so no team would want to push its key defenders further forward during open play unless absolutely necessary.

If the midfield pushed too far forward they’d be away from their defenders and into the opposition ranks in front of their penalty box. That’s not the right place for controlling possession because the risk of losing the ball would be very high, as would be the gap between their own lines which would make controlling transitions much harder.

If they stayed deeper and pushed the central defenders further back, the team would be farther from the opposition box/goal and closer to its own penalty area and goal. Again it wouldn’t be ideal. In fact, Bayern succeeded in pushing them back but I’ll come to that in a bit.

You could call that purple box, although an approximation, the control room for the suffocating Barcelona system. Attacks are built from there with carefully picked moments of penetration and all the players form layers around the ball. An attacking player might want to pass it back and Busquets or Xavi would be available to receive it. Behind them would be the layer of central defenders and even Valdes could receive a pass if the opponents got too close. Similarly, there would be midfielders available for sideways passes and beyond them, right on the flanks, either a full-back or a winger would be waiting. This layering also helped control transitions by quickly pressing the man on the ball and the first layer of options around him.

What Bayern did, through superior physicality, immaculate organization, and astute decision making, was to wrest control of this vital piece of territory.

The following chart compares passes made by Barcelona against the Germans in the two legs.

Barcelona passes against Bayern home and away

The density of passing remains a very good indicator of where all the action was. The control room is sparsely populated. Barcelona had more possession deeper in their own half.

In his insightful match report for his Zonal Marking website, Michael Cox made the following observation,

Barcelona’s most frequent passing combination was Marc Bartra to Gerard Pique – a move that happened 21 times.

He went on to add,

The ball spent too long at the back, and Barcelona never picked up the tempo and piled on the pressure on the Bayern defence.

Cox ascribes this problem (partly?) to Song’s inability to link the defence with the creative players in a manner that Busquets typically does,

…Song wasn’t disastrous in the holding role, but he lacks Busquets’ positional discipline and understanding of how to let the play flow naturally through him, and up towards the creative players.

But it’s worth noting that in the reverse fixture Barca had the same problem even with Busquets in the starting line up. Refer to the passing density above and the fact that their most common passing combination in that game was Alba to Iniesta with 22 passes on the flank followed closely by, you guessed it, Bartra to Pique at 21 passes.

Against Milan, who sat back, Busquets to Xavi and Xavi to Iniesta were the most common passing combinations, and many of those passes were in the control room area discussed above.

Busquets to Xavi and Xavi to Iniesta against Milan

Whereas most of the Bartra to Pique passes were almost all 10-20 yards inside the Barcelona half in both the games.

Bartra to Pique against Bayern home and away

Against Milan, Barcelona completed 626 of their 715 attempted passes. In Munich, they completed 603 out of 666. The number or accuracy of passes is not very different. In no way does it explain how Vilanova’s side won the former game by 4 goals to nil while losing the latter with the same margin. But the positioning of those passes is more telling.

A few things happened as a result of Bayern successfully pushing Barcelona’s chief possession zone back by 20-25 yards.

1) Barcelona were further away from the Bayern goal and it was harder for them to bring their attackers into play. They were stretched vertically. This reduced the total number of attacks that the Spanish side could mount as well as the quality of the ones they did put together. Remember, they don’t like to play a direct vertical game.

2) The Catalans were never able to get into the siege mode – a shape where they could collectively and effectively suffocate the Germans once they lost the ball – because their spacing was no longer as required for that kind of pressing. Consequently, they could not really press as a unit, particularly higher up the pitch. This was another observation that Cox made in his analysis,

…while Barcelona’s sheer stamina in their pressing was frequently praised under Guardiola, less attention was played to the actual positioning and cohesion in the pressing – the player in possession wasn’t just closed down, all his other passing options were pressured too. Here, Barcelona’s ‘pressing’ seemed simply more like frantic chasing with other opponents left free.

3) As a result of 1 and 2, Bayern were able to hold on to the ball when Barcelona lost it (for longer than 6 seconds!), remained relatively safe at the back, and were always a threat on counters. On the other hand, Vilanova’s side could no longer remain patient in possession in deeper areas, and their attempts to bring attackers into play were down to riskier passes that resulted in threatening transitions which could not be prevented by hard pressing as their shape was lost.

It’s difficult to say just what percentage of that territorial battle was won by Bayern and what was lost by Barcelona. Surely, a fully fit Messi would have had a bigger say in that battle. But I’ve seen Real Madrid trouble their Catalan rivals in recent games through similar tactics by contesting that zone with some success, so I’m inclined to believe this is one of Barcelona’s (the possession game’s) genuine weaknesses and the Germans did well to exploit that.

Heynckes’ team did that by constant and clever pressing. They never went overboard but consistently marked the key players. When they had to leave someone free it was usually the central defenders. Ergo the Bartra to Pique combination discussed above.

Their man-marking was flawless but, equally, the players also picked the right moments and positions to let their man go and hand him over to a teammate. Most teams struggle at this against Barcelona because their movement pulls opponents apart and creates gaps in the defensive fabric. Bayern rarely yielded a yard of space, and never for a period long enough to be expensive.

Mandzukic in this game, and Gomez in the previous one, often left the central defenders and dropped back onto the deepest midfielder. This gave them an extra body in midfield which was useful in dealing with Messi or Fabregas when they dropped deep. In turn, the Bayern central defenders were rarely pulled out of position.

Furthermore, the discipline and work rate of usually attack-minded players like Ribery and Robben was praiseworthy. They often played as auxiliary full-backs when Barca did get the chance to move forward. It allowed Lahm and Alaba the luxury of staying relatively compact alongside their central defenders. Bayern’s backline maintained excellent spacing for most of the 180 minutes.

An interesting side note

Although further observations and analysis is needed on this, I get a feeling people within German football have identified the aforementioned piece of real estate on the football pitch as the key to finding the right balance between attack and defence.

Observe the density of passes made by Arsenal in home games against Schalke and Bayern, both of which the Gunners lost despite dominating possession.

Arsenal vs Schalke and Bayern

Seems consistent with the discussion above, doesn’t it?

Dortmund topped their group of death but had less possession than their opponents in all six group games. Away to City and Ajax for instance, the Germans did an excellent job of defending that space just inside their own half.

Dortmund against City and Ajax

While Barcelona and other possession based sides like to control that central zone just inside the opposition half from an offensive point of view, the Germans have shown that proactively defending that zone can lead to superb balance between attack and defence.

Many teams concede that zone when facing technically dominant sides. Indeed, Chelsea and Inter have won the Champions League by parking the bus, so to speak. But it’s worth noting that they both ended up in the Europa League this season. Defending deep and hoping for chances on the counter-attack can work in the short term but it is rarely going to be a strategy that works over a long period of time, not to mention the sheer drudgery needed to survive in each game.

The German approach, on the other hand, provides greater tactical control over games and the team with lower possession can often create more meaningful chances and look like the better attacking unit!

Defending with the first line of players around the centre line or pressing the first ball out from defence is not a revolutionary tactic. But we must also remember that Guardiola didn’t invent short passing, pressing, through-balls, or a clever dink over the top. He found a way to put it all together meticulously in a system that suited the strengths of his players to a tee. The beauty was in the minor details and flawless execution time and time again.

Similarly, it’s not that Heynckes, or Klopp, or other managers in the German system have created a novel tactical approach. But they seem to have refined it to a level where it could indeed create the new world order in football. I am possessed by that thought, do you have a counter?

 


Arsenal 1 – 1 Manchester United: Match Thoughts And Individual Analysis

April 30, 2013

Before the game most Arsenal fans would have taken a draw against Manchester United, and the point against Ferguson’s side could still prove to be a useful one. The way I see it, if the Gunners fall short by a couple of points, I would look at many other games where they’ve not been at their best before looking at this one.

Wenger made a number of changes to the starting line-up and the fresher legs might have helped. Arsenal started the game at a frantic pace and it was enough to take the lead. After the game the Frenchman said the fast start was down to mental preparation. It could very well be, it was similar to the kind of initial bout of energy we saw against Bayern in Germany.

Arsenal’s goal looked fairly simple but it was pretty enjoyable with some interesting details. The fact that RvP gave the ball away leading to the transition must surely have worked as a temporarily soothing balm on a multitude of bitterly hurting Gooner hearts. I liked the way Podolski dropped into the space between the lines to receive the pass. That the Germans most noteworthy contribution came in the 2nd minute of the game remains a huge disappointment. More on that later.

Rosicky’s ability to beat Evans with  a drop of the shoulder, his perfectly weighted pass, and Walcott’s electric pace were also delightful to watch.

United’s defence was caught off-guard due to the speed of the transition. The gap between their defence and midfield was yawning, as was the distance between Evans and Evra. It wasn’t a good day for French full-backs and Evra’s sluggishness was also uncharacteristic. In fairness to him, it was a clear off-side and should have been given. It happened again towards the end of the first half when Podolski played the ball into Cazorla’s path but this time the ref’s assistant was alert to off-side.

Arsenal seemed in control for large periods of the first half. But as we’ve seen in this fixture before, Wenger’s side doesn’t create too many high quality chances despite creating an illusion of domination. Once United got into their defensive rhythm the Gunners were limited to shots from outside the box.

Apart from the goal, the only other genuinely exciting chance of the first half came from another quick transition when pressure high up the pitch resulted in a turnover. Ramsey made the wrong choice as he passed the ball to Podolski when Walcott was free. I doubt the Welshman even saw his English compatriot as things happened quickly. His choice would be inexplicable if he’d actually seen Theo with yards of space all around him.

The Gunners attempted over a 100 passes in the final third in the first half. The visitors only managed a third of that. However, in terms of chances both sides seemed fairly even, which highlighted Arsenal’s defensive frailties and United’s efficiency on the counter-attack.

Of course, the penalty was down to a big mistake (or two) by Sagna but United had created three other half decent chances. Two of those fell to Phil Jones while an RvP header was saved by Szczesny’s face. Ferguson’s side were playing on the counter-attack and made clever use of the space behind the full-backs, particularly Sagna, whenever they could. Phil Jones made well-timed runs into the box as he attacked the crosses.

The first half was also characterized by numerous technical mistakes like poor touches and sprayed passes by players from both sides who’re usually much more accomplished.

There were fewer of these in the second half and the visitors grew into the game as time went by, but it’s worth noting that United were less efficient when they saw a lot more of the ball. Before a couple of late counter-attacks, Rooney’s header from close range was the visitors’ only real attacking contribution. Arsenal’s defence looked a lot more secure when they had the support of other outfield players and didn’t have to deal with quick transitions.

Wenger made the obvious substitutions – Wilshere for Rosicky, Gervinho for Podolski, and Oxlade-Chamberlain for Ramsey (Sagna might have been the better candidate given his form in this game) – but, to be honest, there wasn’t enough firepower on the Arsenal bench to make a difference against such an opponent.

The Gunners just couldn’t work any combinations in the attacking third of the pitch to break the United defence down. There were many promising moments that were squandered as the players tried thinking on their feet and made suboptimal choices. Arsenal’s inefficient wing play was also easy for the visiting defence.

Podolski down the middle is an option I’ve wanted to see more off, but there is always the risk that the team won’t be able to adapt to his style without sufficient time. The German is the kind of player who can receive and pass the ball in tight spaces but he needs the ball at his feet and doesn’t always move around to offer himself. This really minimized the opportunities for working combinations with Podolski at the centre. The midfield’s inability to make third-person penetrating runs around him just as the German received the ball from another player also cuts out attacking options.

Giroud and Podolski have very different individual qualities and the other players will need some time to change their styles to suit the attributes of a different central striker. I think Wenger should persist with Podolski as long as the Frenchman is suspended. It might not excite the fans immediately but there is potential there that could be harnessed with some focused work in training. It has a bit of a risk for this season but could be useful practice for the next. In any case, it’s not like there is an overabundance of exciting options for that role.

I thought this game ended on a positive note because Arsenal didn’t concede from a counter-attack at the end. When the Gunners had some pressure in the United box and won successive corners late in the game, my main thought was not of them scoring one but conceding one on a quick break. It almost happened when Rooney released Giggs down the left. In his younger days that would have been a goal. On this occasion, the Welshman’s shot was deflected behind for a corner from which Evra’s free header went over the bar. Arsenal succeeded in preventing United from winning a game they didn’t play particularly well in. Odd as it may sound, it is a commendable result given the recent history of these two teams.

Individual Performances:

Szczesny: Made one useful save from Van Persie and Rooney’s header was straight at him. Can’t be blamed for the penalty. Wasn’t troubled as much as United couldn’t direct some of their better chances towards the goal.

Sagna: Bulk of the blame for the goal falls on his usually reliable shoulders. Could easily have been sent off for a desperate lunge in the second half. Deserves some credit for tracking Jones’ run and putting pressure on him when the youngster looked set to score. But broadly speaking, this was a game he’d want to forget soon.

Mertesacker: Made some useful interceptions and got on the end of a few of the balls put into the box. Played his part in minimizing the damage Van Persie and Rooney could inflict.

Koscielny: Was again the busier of the two centre-backs with numerous useful interceptions and tackles in front of the Arsenal box that broke up potential attacks. Passing could have been better – for instance, the first chance for Jones resulted from a counter-attack after one of his loose passes went straight to an opponent around the centre line.

Gibbs: Saw much less of the ball than Sagna and probably benefitted from the fact that Valencia was having a bad day. Offensive contribution was marginal.

The defenders had a fairly decent day but it wasn’t as good as is needed for getting big results at this level on a consistent basis. United were able to break forward more often that Wenger would have liked and with relative ease. They were also able find clear spaces to cross and get on the end of some balls in dangerous areas in front of the goal. The tendency to gift goals through major individual mistakes is rankling.

Arteta: Steady game from the Spaniard with decent defensive contribution. Not his best or worst game. Can’t really recall many noticeable events, which is partially good, but a bit more influence from the most experienced midfielder can always help.

Rosicky: Excellent assist and he seemed to be running the show in the first half without quite orchestrating the second breakthrough. It’s good to see him drop deep at times but I’d also like to see him get really close to the striker more often, particularly when the leading man has good technical skills to combine. I expected he will be taken off but was also a touch disappointed.

Ramsey: It’s good to see him have more and more influence on games and hopefully it will become decisive soon. For instance, that pass that didn’t got to Walcott or that superb throughball that Podolski couldn’t take in his stride were moments that could have given him a lot more confidence and the team that extra edge. Pressing up the pitch was useful but I did get a feeling the full-backs, particularly Sagna, could have done with more support.

Cazorla: Forced a couple of good saves with enterprising shots from distance. Wasn’t able to create as much or get closer to Podolski, which was a surprise because usually they combine well. Does look like a player who could use a day off.

The midfield had control of the central third in the first half and produced enjoyable combinations in that part of the pitch but they couldn’t quite find the combination to unlock the opponents in the attacking third. Often it was a matter of picking the wrong option, or seeing the pass a little late which allowed the defence to recover.

I do get a feeling that Ramsey’s greater freedom in midfield is putting greater positional burden on Arteta and is restricting his contribution. Will have to see this over the next few days before forming any opinions.

Walcott: Took his goal well but had very little to offer once the game got congested. He’s not the kind of player who can adapt to a change in partners very quickly and naturally.

Podolski: Have already covered his role and issues above. He really has to move a lot more when playing centrally for a team like Arsenal. Too often you feel he is waiting for something to happen without realizing that it’s his job to make things happen. Constant movement, often seemingly aimless, is an unheralded but vital part of a striker’s role, especially at a club like Arsenal. Dropping deep can help, as it did for the goal, but he also needs to move horizontally along the defensive line with an eye for the space in behind. Even when he drops deep he needs to be alert to options before he receives the ball instead of looking for them after receiving and controlling it. The opportunities are lost in the blink of an eye when playing in tight spaces against well-organized opponents.

The attacking players were involved with the goal but spent the rest of the game being largely ineffective. In part it’s the problem with the system which demands a great degree of mutual understanding, but it’s also an issue with individual qualities and limitations.

Subs: None of them added anything different or extra, which was understandable and regrettable.

Wenger: Ferguson’s ‘formula’ nearly worked even with a side that wasn’t completely motivated. The result does not hide the gap between the two sides. United were more efficient in attack and more stable defensively. It is a systemic issue that Wenger has to address.


Thoughts On Tactics And Starting Eleven Against Manchester United

April 28, 2013

The champions-elect will receive a guard of honour at the Emirates on Sunday while Robin van Persie could receive something quite to the contrary from the fans. Those are interesting but minor subplots as the twists and turns in Arsenal’s quest for the Champions League places will surely take centre stage once the game begins.

Ferguson seems to have the formula for playing Wenger’s sides, particularly in the last few years. I probably don’t have to remind you that Arsenal have only won 1 of their last 8 Premier League games while losing 6 of those. In the same period the Gunners have also lost 3 cup games against the Red Devils.

At the simplest level, it’s said that Ferguson asks his players to get tight to their opponents and deny them any time or space on the ball to disrupt Arsenal’s passing rhythm. United’s usually secure defensive structure has also kept the Gunner’s out and limited the number and nature of chances they could create. At the other end, quick counter-attacks and clever wing play have caused Wenger’s defence a fair amount of problems.

United have scored 18 League goals in the last 8 games against Arsenal conceding just 7 in the process, which explains the results and bears evidence to the success of Ferguson’s formula. Even if the 8-2 score line is removed as an outlier, the Red Devils have scored 10 to Arsenal’s 5. They also scored 6 while conceding just once in the 3 cup ties between the two sides during the last four years or so.

Wenger will have to find a way to counter Ferguson’s simple-sounding but highly effective approach. It won’t be easy because the Arsenal manager always wants his teams to play the same way. The Frenchman’s belief seems to be that if his side plays as well as they can the opponent’s tactics won’t matter. Clearly, the Scot has got the better of him over a long enough duration to merit a reconsideration.

The way I see it, Arsenal’s biggest challenge in this game is to ensure they don’t conceded a goal. United have lost only 2 away games this season and both have been narrow 1-0 defeats. Arsenal’s only win in their last 8 League meetings against the Red Devils has also been a 1-0.

Needless to say, the first goal will be vital and could prove decisive. Both these sides have only lost 4 points from a winning position but the champions-elect have turned it around more often than Arsenal as they’ve recovered 28 points from losing positions to Arsenal’s 16. Wenger’s team might struggle to get anything from this game if they concede the first goal. Individual mistakes or structural looseness must be avoided at all costs even if means playing out a drab, low-risk first half.

United don’t have anything more to play for so their motivation might drop as the game goes on particularly if it’s a tedious midfield battle. They might not track the runners or mark their opposing numbers as diligently as they’d do in a game that mattered more. A vertically stretched game would suit their strengths more and keep the players excited as they’ll always sense a chance.

The problem for Arsenal is that they’ve not really been able to defend in the central third of the pitch this season. When the defence has worked, it’s usually been hard work in and around the penalty box with most outfield players pulled back. Ferguson’s side generally finds a way to beat this kind of defending through their excellent wing play.

Playing slightly deeper with a couple of quick players in attack could still work for Arsenal if they can find a way to get the attackers involved and thus keep the visitors in check through an offensive threat of their own.

In Giroud’s absence Wenger will have to tweak his system a bit. Walcott is the only other player who’s played some games in the central role this season. Podolski and Gervinho are other options. I’d have liked to see the German get more time in the central areas but Wenger obviously has his reasons to keep him wide or on the bench. It’s tough to say whether this is the game to make a major change.

Having Walcott down the middle and Gervinho on the right should provide genuine pace to Arsenal’s attack but we’ve seen the team struggle to bring Theo into the game in such a role. I’ve felt that Wenger often leaves his players to figure out the solutions for themselves and it’s often sublime when it works, but against opponents who’ve mastered the defensive side of the game the answers can be hard to come by. Having certain pre-planned attacking options can help but I will be surprised if we see such moves from the Gunners.

Wenger does have most of his players available so it’ll be interesting to see what he considers a balanced line-up for this game.

I’ve a feeling Wilshere will start with Rosicky moving back to the bench. The rest of the team, barring Giroud, is likely to be the same as the one that took field at Craven Cottage.

We might see,

Szczesny – Sagna, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Monreal – Arteta, Wilshere, Ramsey – Gervinho, Walcott, Cazorla.

Ferguson might give some of his fringe players a chance and the United squad might have a lower degree of motivation than they usually have, but the Gunners can’t count on it. I have a feeling this game will be decided by mistakes rather than great football. Lack of confidence or tactical confusion could prove fatal for the hosts whereas a lower degree of concentration might hurt the visitors. It’ll probably be decided by a one goal margin or less.


Fulham 0 – 1 Arsenal: Match Thoughts And Individual Analysis

April 23, 2013

A win against a team that has proven hard to beat in the last four meetings spread over more than two and a half years is definitely worth cherishing. In some ways this win over the Cottagers showed why Wenger’s team has kept on securing one of the top four spots over the last four seasons despite being written off on a constant basis. The math is simple, Arsenal get results more often than most teams. For instance, top four contenders Everton drew with the Gunners at the Emirates but went to Sunderland and succumbed to a defeat. They didn’t play well and couldn’t get a result.

However, that argument also has an equally valid corollary. The performance against Fulham wasn’t as good as one would expect from a top side against an opponent that was down to 10 men for over 80 minutes. The probabilities work here too, if a team continues to make heavy weather of such games they’ll drop more points than those at the top of the table. A freakish goal, a wrong call by the ref, a moment of brilliance form an opponent, or something else will and do cost Arsenal points over the course of a season in games they should be winning comfortably.

These are two sides of the same coin and fans focusing on only one are simply betraying their own biases.

The game itself was entertaining for a while before it got tense. The goal made it comfortable, which in turn led to some tactical confusion before a very nervy finish.

The opening minutes were evenly contested and it seemed like this was going to be an open game with both sides looking to build from the back. Fulham created a fantastic opening in this period when Manolev burst down the right flank. Arsenal’s covering defending was reactionary and a fraction slow, which allowed the full-back the opportunity to simply knock the ball forward and chase after it. Better and quicker reading of the situation by the defenders would have curtailed this move high up on the left in the Arsenal half.

All passes first three minutes

Nevertheless, Emanuelson made the wrong choice and danger was thwarted.

Over the next seven to eight minutes, it was all Arsenal.

All passes 3 to 10 minutes

The Gunners had raised the tempo of their passing and were doing an excellent job of moving the ball around. Their positioning higher up the pitch and cohesive pressing made it difficult for the Cottagers and, if the graphic above is accurate, Martin Jol’s side didn’t make a single successful forward pass in the 3-10 minute period!

With a full complement of players on the pitch, Fulham were playing slightly higher up the pitch. Their first line of defence was about 10 yards inside their half while the back four were sitting a few yards behind them. The idea was to prevent Arsenal from getting into central areas in front of the defence by cutting passing channels and pressing the man on the ball at the back. A number of teams have been successful with this against the Gunners this season, as have Fulham in the past, but in this game it felt like they were not completely into it. Maybe it was simply a matter of not being motivated enough.

I’d a feeling Arsenal were going to score because Fulham were too open and the Gunners rampant. It was just a matter of finding the right ball. For instance, Giroud received a pass in front of the defence and almost played Walcott through. Theo was off-side but the spaces, particularly between the lines and behind the back four, were clearly visible.

Then came the first decisive moment of the game. Sidwell lunged into a terrible tackle. I’m not sure if he went in really hard but it was high and dangerous. Some refs might have let him off with a yellow but it’s hard to argue against that Red. The Fulham manager said pretty much the same thing,

Sometimes you hope the referee will book you because it wasn’t intentional, but if you are consistent it is a red card.

The hosts retreated deep into their own half after going down to 10, which is understandable. Their back four was now just on the edge of their box or deeper and the first line of defence was roughly five yards in front. A deep and narrow defence with two banks of four is also something that works against the Gunners, at least on occasion.

For a while it seemed the Cottagers will frustrate Wenger’s side as they were extremely disciplined and made it impossible to play through them down the middle. Arsenal’s wing play is in general weaker than other top teams and they couldn’t really use the width available to them. It’s worth noting that Fulham attempted more crosses than Arsenal despite having less than 30 percent possession.

Even when the ball went wide there were few bodies in the box and Giroud was often isolated against four defenders. I thought the midfielders were really trying hard to stretch the defence with their movement but none of them really joined in the attack and there were no penetrating runs that come to mind.

Of course, in such a case there is no reason to panic early in the game and the players could have been confident that a goal will come if they keep at it. The 10 men would have eventually tired and we usually see more defensive mistakes late in such games. As it was, Arsenal finally made a set-piece count. Ruiz lost his concentration for a moment, Walcott’s delivery was excellent, Koscielny rose to meet it but could only direct it back across the goal. Ultimately, it was Mertesacker’s poaching instincts – I liked the way he continued his run and lost Senderos – that resulted in the goal.

The second half was characterized by the confusion we’ve seen from Arsenal all season. The players weren’t really sure whether they should play out the game or go for more goals. As a result the passing and movement lacked sufficient purpose. In such cases we also see situations where the defenders start dropping deep while some players are chasing the ball high up the pitch. The team does not perform like a unit in sync.

For a while the game meanders along but opponents soon start sensing a chance when the Gunners don’t click together because it counters their biggest strength – their technical superiority.

Fulham grew into the game as it progressed and they got really direct towards the end. The ball spent a lot more time in Arsenal’s defensive third and the hosts were close to getting something. Desperate blocks and interventions from the Gunners were enough to keep Szczesny safe for the most part but we’ve seen plenty of games where Arsenal concede a freakish goal in such circumstances. That’s the point I was making earlier about the gap when compared to the top sides.

The Cottagers must be disappointed they didn’t make the most of their chances but their position in the table is not a fluke. Berbatov showed a tendency to sulk and moan when greater concentration and diligence would have helped. Many of their players, Kacaniklic in particular, showed good qualities on the ball but couldn’t really produce a decisive moment in tight areas.

Neither side created much in the second half.

Shots in the second half

For the Gunners, Ramsey went closest deep in injury time. Fulham had a couple of free-kicks but little else to register on the charts.

With Spurs winning against City and Chelsea again dropping two late points, Arsenal should be delighted with their three points. All is not well, that much is pretty clear, but the season could still end on a strong positive note if the spirit continues to shine through.

Individual Performances:

Szczesny: A correct off-side call saved his blushes as he spilled a free-kick into a dangerous area. Had a pretty decent game otherwise but he wasn’t really made to sweat by the hosts.

Sagna: Had a fairly comfortable game defensively till the late Fulham rally. Spent a lot of time high up the pitch but wasn’t able make use of the space out wide. Crossing wasn’t very good but often he lacked targets in the box.

Mertesacker: Scored the winner and produced some crucial interventions in the Arsenal penalty box. Passing was steady and reliable. Gets the MotM vote in my book.

Koscielny: Again he was the busier of the two centre-backs from a defensive point of view. Won a number of vital duels and cleared the danger late in the game. It wasn’t perfect – for instance, late in the game he shanked a clearance straight up in the air in the penalty box; made the wrong choice and slipped in the build-up to the Berbatov chance – but it worked. Picked up a useful assist.

Monreal: Saw a lot more of the ball than Sagna and had a pretty busy defensive game. He too couldn’t really make use of the width available. There were a number of small mistakes that in another game might have been more visible.

I thought the full-backs were too far up the pitch during the first half and contributed to the congestion at times. They might have been better off picking their moments, but this is an approach Wenger seems to prefer. The central defenders made the decisive impact at both ends.

Arteta: Excellent ball circulation and good defensive contribution across the width of the pitch mostly in the central third. I did feel this was a game where a deep-lying playmaker would have been handy and it’s something the Spaniard can do. Don’t know why he’s not asked to stay further back and pick out more penetrating passes.

Rosicky: Another one who saw a lot of the ball but most of it was a fair distance away from goal. I felt he should have been getting closer to Giroud after the red card and making more runs in behind.

Ramsey: Work rate was again superb. Was involved with the play all over the pitch, probably more often than any other player on the pitch. Almost scored at the end. He’s another one who could have either attempted some creative passes from deep or made more runs to join Giroud as he seems the best equipped midfielder when it comes to attacking crosses.

Cazorla: Looked tired and wasn’t able to influence play anywhere near as effectively as he has done for most of the season. It’s unfair to be harsh on the guy but was some way below his own high standards.

The midfield was dynamic but in an ineffective way. There was a lot of movement and sharp passing but it lacked purpose and penetration. They’ll have to find some tweaks as one or two of the remaining games might see teams parking the bus.

Giroud: Saw very little of the ball in the penalty box despite his team dominating possession and territory for most of the game. Arsenal have to learn to use his physical strengths to their advantage when a team drops so deep. The Red Card at the end seemed the right call at first sight but replays showed he slipped while trying a turn. Hopefully, it will be overturned.

Walcott: Movement was disappointing as he didn’t know where to go once the space was cut out. Has to learn to come across the face of the penalty box and use the horizontal space when vertical is in short supply. Good delivery on the set-piece for the goal.

The forwards just weren’t able to get into the game, which really is a failure of the system as a whole. Giroud and Walcott have very different attributes and the Gunners couldn’t use any of their qualities.

Subs: Wilshere had more defensive work to do and barely got into the attacking third. Podolski too came on at a time when the team had lost its impetus. Vermaelen barely had a few moments on the pitch.

Wenger: The ‘psychological problem’ that he talks about has been around for almost the entire season now. IMO it is directly related to indecision and tactical uncertainty in the players’ minds and it’s the manager’s job to guide them. There’s just four games left but this issue could still cause major damage.


Thoughts On Tactics And Starting Eleven Against Fulham

April 20, 2013

The Cottagers have proven to be tricky opponents for the Gunners over the last few seasons. Arsenal last won against Fulham in 2010! And in the last 9 meetings between the sides the Gunners have won only 3. All those three came in a row starting with that heroic effort from Mannone in 2009.

It’s difficult to single out a reason for this because Fulham have had three different managers over that 9 game period. Even the patterns of play have varied. But there is one common factor – technique. Fulham sides over the last few years have had pretty good technical quality. This means they’re able to hold the ball against Arsenal and in some games they’ve even been able to push up and pin the Gunners back. At times this also coincides with their aerial strength and they’ve used the long ball effectively, particularly under Mark Hughes.

This season’s squad at Craven Cottage is again a technically strong unit. Players like Ruiz and Berbatov are just excellent while many others support them admirably as far as technique is concerned. In the reverse fixture they were able to create some delightful moves and made good use of the gap that develops when Arsenal’s pressing higher up the pitch is countered by the opponent’s sharp passing at the back.

For example, Kacaniklic’s goal in the reverse fixture came after a spell of short passing at the back. Four or five Arsenal players were trying to press higher up the pitch while the defence fell back. The gap that opened up was quickly exploited and Fulham went from their own half to the Arsenal penalty box in a couple of passes after playing at least 10 passes in their own half.

Kacaniklic goal Arsenal 3 3 Fulham

The off the ball movement of Berbatov, his understanding with Kacaniklic, and the patience, technique, and composure of their players at the back were all appreciable details in that goal.

Wenger’s team should expect more of the same and unless they keep their shape compact they’ll again concede through a similar pattern just like they did against West Brom.

With the aerial threat posed by Hangeland and Senderos, Fulham will also be a hopeful of troubling Arsenal through their set-pieces. Their full-backs make good runs and have the ability to put quality balls into the box. That’s another potential avenue for attacks. With the likes of Berbatov, Ruiz, Karagounis and others in their ranks, shots from distance could also be a problem if the players are not closed down.

In the reverse fixture Fulham also did a great job of nicking the ball from an Arsenal man in possession with Ruiz in particular stealing possession from at least three different Gunners (including the penalty incident when he pinched it off Arteta). Dawdling on the ball will not be a good idea and some shouts from teammates could also help.

Their defending hasn’t been particularly great. Even at home the Cottagers have lost 6 games and conceded 22 goals. Although occasionally they can produce the kind of performance they recently showed at White Hart Lane to win the game by a solitary goal, they’ve only kept 4 clean sheets at Craven Cottage. Martin Jol’s side have lost 5 and drawn 1 of their 7 home games against sides that are above them in the League.

Wenger’s side should be able to create chances and score goals if they can move the ball at pace. They key will be to find a balance so that the defence isn’t left exposed and their technical players don’t find enough time or space to dictate play.

Arsenal will have to get more out of their winger if they wish to win this game. Ramsey’s forward bursts from midfield could also be very fruitful.

Wenger has most of his squad available for selection but it’s tough to guess what his choices will be. Wilshere’s inclusion in the previous games has been a surprise and the manager is known to manufacture injuries as an excuse when he leaves players out.

Rosicky’s presence in the starting line-up would definitely help the team. It’s tough to pick one out of Gervinho, Walcott, and Oxlade-Chamberlain as they all have their strengths and weaknesses. My guess is Theo will keep his place but my choice would be Gervinho because he has the best movement of the three and that opens the game up more often.

Wenger might even put Cazorla in the middle for this game and put Podolski back on the left to add some freshness. I’d like to see the German get some time in the centre but this is probably not the right moment to experiment with such things.

I’d like to see,

Szczesny – Sagna, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Monreal – Arteta, Rosicky, Ramsey – Gervinho, Giroud, Cazorla.

Wenger will make his choices based on injuries real or notional, the medical advice about the sharpness of some players (this will be the 3rd game in 8 days for many if there are no rotations), and his opinion of the combinations that can work. There are many permutations that could work for Arsenal and there are many that could struggle. In some cases the game could go either way with the same starting line-up and it would depend on how Fulham use their strengths and cover their weaknesses.

In that regard, since the Cottagers don’t have much to play for, we might see a marginally lower intensity and/or concentration in their performance. However, that is not something one can assume. Arsenal will once again have to show exceptional spirit if they wish to have all the three points from this game but that alone might not be enough. Good combinations in attack and structural integrity when defending will be just as important. Gaps between the lines might prove very expensive.

I have a feeling this will be a much more open game than the one against Everton was. Which side will take their chances?


Arsenal 0 – 0 Everton: Match Thoughts And Individual Analysis

April 19, 2013

In the preview I’d mentioned that no team apart from United has won five games in a row in the Premier League. Add that to Everton’s form and the fact that they’d drawn away to City and Tottenham and the odds for a stalemate at the Emirates seemed favourable. That said, if I had to put money, it’d have been on a score draw. The love-all result was a bit of a surprise.

Broadly speaking, it was down to the slightly conservative nature of Arsenal’s play, particularly in the first half. Everton came out with a very high intensity as was expected but the Gunners did well to keep them out in the initial exchanges. Moyes’ side have created a number of quality chances every time I’ve seen them play this season even if they haven’t always converted those chances into goals and results. In this game the Gunners really minimized the opportunities they could create.

Apart from that early chance for Pienaar and a couple of other moments, there wasn’t much from the visitors in the form of incision or goal-threat.

Wenger’s side were disciplined, fairly well structured, and worked hard for each other. Examples of this were visible throughout the game but the most obvious ones were the manner in which the right flank was defended. Sagna was rarely left alone and Everton’s attempts to overlap were thwarted as the Gunners tracked runs diligently. Even when the Toffees got 3 or 4 bodies in the wide areas to cause an overload and manufacture space with clever combinations, the Gunners quickly moved wide to close it down. Everton weren’t able to put many balls into the box as a result of this.

Similarly, Arsenal players did a very good job of attacking set-pieces and other balls delivered into the box. The visitors had a clear physical advantage but they weren’t able to use that as the hosts covered all the bases.

This defensive solidity came at the cost of attacking impetus. The Gunners just couldn’t get enough bodies forward on a consistent basis, particularly in the first half. The total number of opportunities created was quite limited and, at least in part, Everton also deserve credit for denying Arsenal any space in the central areas.

The Gunners were not able to bring Walcott into the game as he was tightly marked and never found room to run into. On a handful of occasions when he did get a glimpse of an opening it was crudely but cleverly shut down via a foul. The ref was lenient – Fellaini should have received a yellow card in the first 10 minutes and Gibson could easily have been sent off – but we’ve seen enough of the English game to know this is a part of the equation that Arsenal just have to learn to deal with.

As was mentioned in the preview the visitors did a good job of shepherding the hosts towards the flanks before winning the balls in those areas. They also forced Arsenal into playing the inherently inefficient crossing game.

Of course, some might say that a cross should have resulted in a goal and Giroud missed a really good chance when Ramsey put a delectable offering on a plate for him. The Frenchman overcooked his shot, which was a sign of inexperience. He went for power and placement when all he needed to do was cushion the ball towards goal. Howard had committed and an experienced striker would have been alert to that. Giroud’s actual age is that of a player at the peak of his powers but we must not forget he is a late bloomer and there are many raw edges to his game.

Another case of inexperience was when Oxlade-Chamberlain tried putting the ball in the striker’s path when taking a shot at goal was a good option. These are not easy choices though and the youngsters intentions can be applauded. Walcott has shown better decision making skills in such situations as he’s gained more playing time and the same will happen with Alex.

There were maybe a couple of other half chances but not much else in the form of creativity or penetration from the Gunners. They lacked offensive efficiency that we saw against West Brom and a little bit of luck which helped them against Norwich. That’s the reason I’d said the law of averages was bound to catch up and it’s also the reason why few teams, however hyped up or expensively assembled, win five or more in a row.

Obviously, the problem of balance – something I’ve discussed all season – is not going to go away any time soon. I’m still not convinced Wenger knows what his best eleven is with this squad and the kind of combinations that are needed to solve the different problems posed by the unique styles of opposing teams. In many ways this feels like another rebuilding process where a lot of players are inexperienced and have a lot to learn about the game just as Wenger has something to learn about their individual attributes and the way they come together.

Individual Performances:

Szczesny: Did well to close Pienaar down early on. Had a fairly comfortable game otherwise, which is a big compliment to his teammates.

Sagna: Very busy day for the Frenchman and he was mostly excellent. Did lose Pienaar once for that early chance. Crossing could have been better but it was often rushed due to factors outside his control. Did get good support as mentioned earlier but he deserves credit for controlling Everton’s strong offensive flank.

Mertesacker: Got into very good covering positions in the box which was a direct result of intelligent reading of the game. Passing was steady and safe.

Koscielny: Another player who had good presence in and around the box. Wasn’t tested as much as I’d expected. Was surprised he didn’t push up with the ball a bit more.

Gibbs: Good work rate up and down the flank. Was involved in a number of duels and did well in the defensive ones. Almost created one very good chance (no one attacked the six yard box).

The defenders had a good game and were largely in control of things against a physical side that is usually dominant in the air. They were forced into some desperate long punts early in the game but slowly gained greater control over their passing.

Arteta: Didn’t see as much of the ball as he usually does, particularly in the first half when Everton’s energy was palpable. Defensive support work was excellent and was mostly conservative with his passing choices and positioning.

Wilshere: Better than his effort in the last game. Despite that, there were a number of uncharacteristically misplaced passes and heavy touches. Needs time to regain sharpness but does Wenger have that luxury?

Ramsey: Continues his good work all over the pitch and is maturing into a fine box-to-box player. Created an excellent chance for Giroud, got on the end of a couple of opportunities and helped the defence on a consistent basis. It’s tough to call anyone the MotM after such a game but Ramsey would be a good choice if one had to be made.

Cazorla: Another player who made some uncharacteristically loose passes. Some of his individual skills, particularly under pressure from three or four players, were a delight to watch but he didn’t seem on top of his game.

The midfielders did a good job of supporting the defence but they were not able to break down Everton’s organization.

Giroud: As mentioned earlier, the chances he missed were more down to inexperience. Work rate was again exceptional. Showed for the ball on a consistent basis and did not shy away from physical battles. Passing could have been more composed.

Walcott: Saw very little of the ball. Was tied to right flank for most of his time on the pitch. Was on the receiving end of some bad fouls. Lost many of his attempts to take players on.

As I’ve noted on many occasions, Arsenal are more threatening when they can get the wide players moving horizontally as well as vertically. Didn’t happen in this game.

Subs: Oxlade-Chamberlain got into a great position and made the wrong choice. Podolski can do much better. Monreal gave away a cheap foul late in the game that could have proven costly.

Wenger: Will probably be disappointed with the draw but also pleased with the team’s defending. Still has to find a way to get more out of players like Podolski and Oxlade-Chamberlain. Arsenal’s set-pieces also have a lot of room for improvement.


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