Thoughts On Tactics And Starting Eleven Against Wigan

Congratulations to Wigan for their FA Cup success. Regular readers know they’re one of my favourite teams from among the so-called smaller clubs. Martinez is an impressive young manager and his players have produced some entertaining, high quality football over the years. It’s good to see their work rewarded.

Cup ties are inherently of a knockout nature meaning both teams have to go for a win. But in the League it’s rare that both teams face an absolute must win situation and that too at the opposite ends of the table. You might argue that the Gunners would still have a chance of finishing in the top four if they didn’t win this one, but in my opinion the team that doesn’t win this game will see it’s League hopes crushed. For Wigan, that would mean relegation, while Arsenal will more than likely miss out on the coveted Champions League spot.

This is another game where the view you take is likely to depend on your mentality.

The Latics are renowned for their late comebacks to survive in the League (they’ve won the last two games of the previous two seasons) and a win at the Emirates (something they achieved last season) will give them a genuine chance of pulling it off again. One could argue the Cup win will lift them and the players will find extra energy and motivation. Momentum can be a strong positive force in football.

Someone else might say they’ll be tired and could suffer from a hangover of success and celebrations whereas the Gunners will come into this game feeling revitalized due to a noteworthy break in schedule.

I think we’ll see a committed game from both sides and any side-effects of Wigan’s weekend heroics will only be visible in the later stages of the game, if at all.

There is an interesting pattern to the games between the two sides. Apart from Arsenal’s 0-1 win earlier this season at the DW stadium, the Gunners have not won against Wigan by a single goal margin going back to 2009. Either Arsenal win big (1-4, 4-0, 3-0, 0-4) or they drop points. Wigan have won with scores of 3-2 and 1-2 in this period while also picking up a 2-2 draw. In other words, either Arsenal win relatively easily or they drop points, even lose the game.

The win in the reverse fixture bucked this trend somewhat and Arsenal’s recent tentative but resilient performances suggest that it could be another close encounter. Wenger will hope that his side can scrape together enough goals to win this one. He’ll want a clean sheet but I doubt he’ll get one.

It could be a question of who makes the least defensive mistakes and which side takes its chances.  Arsenal’s problems against the Latics have generally resulted from individual or collective defensive weaknesses. Whether it’s counter-attacks like last season or set-pieces from an earlier time, the visitors will provide multiple offensive threats that have to be dealt with in a consistent and reliable manner.

Martinez has built a side that can retain possession and build attacks. That doesn’t mean they’re likely to match Arsenal’s possession or passing statistics but they will be able to pass it when they win the ball back. This gives them a chance to construct more meaningful attacks compared to the kick-and-hope outfits. It was visible in the FA Cup final when they spent a lot of time in front of their own penalty box but always looked a threat when going forward.

Kone is an intelligent striker who shows for the ball and can hold it or lay it off quickly. He makes useful runs into the channels and can get on the end of crosses or through-balls. The youngster McManaman provides guile and pace on the flank. I like the way he shifts his weight to trick defenders with numerous feints.

Martinez also seems to get the best out of Maloney who can cut inside and join the striker, particularly when McManaman goes in behind. Gomez is inconsistent but has an eye for goal. Espinoza has been a handy acquisition and adds to the threat from their left flank. Their midfielders are steady players who can occasionally step up and make a difference with shots from distance or on counter-attacks.

The Gunners will have a tough time defending their flanks on quick transitions and the full-backs will need a fair amount of support.

I find it hard to categorize Wigan defensively. They can have anywhere from 2 to 6 defenders in a line. 3 is the usual number, but when they drop back and the ball goes wide the defensive line can have as many as six players, thus cutting out spaces. Some of these players push up when the attack is through the middle and that way they have layers and covering players to protect the vital central areas. In such cases the gap between their lines is almost non-existent.

There are mistakes in their defence and Arsenal should get chances if they can play at a fast enough tempo but the Gunners will need greater lateral movement in front of the Wigan backline and more penetrating runs in behind. Otherwise it could again be a case of a lot of possession at one end and the dangerous chances at the other. An early goal for Arsenal can open the game up but it could also leave the Gunners in a tactically confused state, not knowing whether to push forward or step back.

Wenger has most of his players available. It’s tough to predict his choices for this game but I have a feeling it will be the same team that started against QPR with Gibbs coming in for Monreal. The Spaniard struggled against Townsend and it’s not difficult to imagine McManaman running rings around him. Hopefully, Gibbs will be fit. If nothing else, he has greater pace to recover.

Fabianski is fit again but I doubt Wenger will take Szczesny out of the starting line-up.

We might see,

Szczesny – Sagna, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Gibbs – Ramsey, Rosicky, Arteta – Walcott, Podolski, Cazorla.

I’d be tempted to find a place for Gervinho or Oxlade-Chamberlain because having a player who can dribble is useful against a deep-lying defence. But both those players bring their own set of weaknesses to the side and affect the balance. As I’ve noted before, there isn’t an obvious correct answer here and the result could vindicate a choice or make it look stupid.

Finding a way to use Podolski’s skills and getting him into scoring positions or areas where he can play penetrating one-twos could be vital.

This is probably not what you want to read but I expect the Gunners to drop points in at least one of their remaining two fixtures. Unless Wigan crumble, Arsenal will need two, maybe three, goals to win this game. They’ve not scored more than once in their last four fixtures…

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Thoughts On Tactics And Starting Eleven Against QPR

This game is a spin doctor’s dream. Consider the following

• QPR have been relegated and have nothing to play for, their players lack motivation and have underperformed all season, so they’ll be lazy and disjointed.
• The R’s are going down and have nothing more to lose so they’ll play without fear or pressure. The liberation would allow their talented players the opportunity to express themselves and they’ll be very dangerous.
• The squad will surely be culled in the summer and many players who might leave will feel little connection with the club so they won’t perform anywhere close to their best.
• This is a good opportunity for players to prove themselves and secure better transfers in the summer.

I can go on and on but you get the drift. One could build whatever narrative one feels like. As fans, sometimes we go by our feelings. A name like Manchester United makes us feel different than a name like QPR. There is almost a degree of entitlement involved when thinking about opponents at the wrong end of the table. A thought like, “It’s QPR! What’s the point in playing if you can even beat them!” might cross many minds.

But the fact is, these games are never as easy as we think because our mind perceives a greater gap between the teams due to the superlatives that we have to endure at all times. Wenger hit the nail on the head,

The Premier League is the Premier League and you don’t win 3-0 or 4-0 in many games. It is always tight.

QPR have lost only 1 home game out of 5 games against the other teams in the top 6. City, Chelsea, Spurs, and Everton have all drawn at Loftus Road. They’ve also won at Stamford Bridge!

Strangely enough, despite the respectable results against the bigger teams, QPR have the worst home record in the League with just 2 wins in 17 games while scoring just 12 goals in the process. That’s the other side of the story.

For Arsenal, these type of games inevitably boil down to terrible mistakes and Loftus Road has some bad juju! The Gunners have not won a Premier League game at that ground in 5 attempts. In the more recent and relevant games, since their re-entry in 2011, the teams have won home games by a single goal margin. The Gunners won the two games at the Emirates by a goal to nil but lost in the last visit by a goal to two. Unless the hosts give up and crumble, this game could again boil down to a single goal result.

At the back, Arsenal will have to deal with Remy’s pace and the individual skills of Taarabt. Pressing high up the pitch has improved in the recent past but will remain a risk if the defenders are isolated against quick and tricky players. I have a feeling Arsenal will need a clean sheet if they want to get three points from this game.

QPR’s organization, when they drop deep, is fairly good, ignore the impression their position in the table might give. Three of the aforementioned draws against the top six teams were goalless while both teams scored one when Everton visited Loftus Road. In other words, Chelsea, Spurs, Everton, and City have only scored 1 goal between them at this ground in 360 minutes of football!

I have a feeling the R’s are able to defend against the bigger teams because they might think a point is good enough and thus they don’t have to commit too many bodies to attack. That way the problem of balance doesn’t crop up and they remain relatively secure at the back. It could be a long, frustrating game for the Gunners if the hosts decide to stay deep, narrow, and organized. An early goal would make all the difference and the blazing tempo we’ve seen at the start of some games could come in really handy in this one.

I don’t think any of their defenders is individually outstanding but good structure and discipline can make up for that as they would cover for each other and close down the limited spaces in the central areas in front of goal. The Gunners might be forced wide and that old weakness could prove annoying again.

Podolski’s ability to play in tight spaces can be useful if Arsenal can get him on the ball and get players close to him. It’s not very hard to imagine Wilshere dribbling past one or two and then getting in behind by playing a one-two with the German. Poldi will have to deal with Samba’s physicality, which might be a new and substantial challenge for him.

Wenger might also want to consider if he wants to pick Walcott on the flank. Oxlade-Chamberlain or even Gervinho might offer better dribbling skills that could be needed against a deep and narrow defence. Theo, as we’ve seen all too often, doesn’t quite enjoy playing against such defences.

If it were up to me I’d also give Santi a break as he’s looked a touch off his best in recent games. A more direct winger or Rosicky could be used on the left. But I doubt Wenger will keep his most influential player out of the starting line-up, not with CL qualification at stake.

I’d like to see,

Szczesny – Sagna, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Gibbs – Arteta, Wilshere, Ramsey – Oxlade-Chamberlain, Podolski, Rosicky.

Has this front six ever played together this season? Probably not, but I feel they can do the job as long as the Gunners don’t rediscover their gifting instincts. History is not on Arsenal’s side and it might be a case where patience, spirit, and desire prove vital to success.

On an unrelated note, if you like the tactical analysis on this blog, make sure you read my previous post analyzing Bayern’s dominance over Barcelona. It also touches upon Arsenal’s games against Schalke and Bayern along with a couple of Dortmund ones. But mainly it’s about a key territory in the possession vs counter-attack battle. If Wenger’s side can learn from the Germans they could go a long way in many competitions.

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Arsenal 1 – 1 Manchester United: Match Thoughts And Individual Analysis

Before the game most Arsenal fans would have taken a draw against Manchester United, and the point against Ferguson’s side could still prove to be a useful one. The way I see it, if the Gunners fall short by a couple of points, I would look at many other games where they’ve not been at their best before looking at this one.

Wenger made a number of changes to the starting line-up and the fresher legs might have helped. Arsenal started the game at a frantic pace and it was enough to take the lead. After the game the Frenchman said the fast start was down to mental preparation. It could very well be, it was similar to the kind of initial bout of energy we saw against Bayern in Germany.

Arsenal’s goal looked fairly simple but it was pretty enjoyable with some interesting details. The fact that RvP gave the ball away leading to the transition must surely have worked as a temporarily soothing balm on a multitude of bitterly hurting Gooner hearts. I liked the way Podolski dropped into the space between the lines to receive the pass. That the Germans most noteworthy contribution came in the 2nd minute of the game remains a huge disappointment. More on that later.

Rosicky’s ability to beat Evans with  a drop of the shoulder, his perfectly weighted pass, and Walcott’s electric pace were also delightful to watch.

United’s defence was caught off-guard due to the speed of the transition. The gap between their defence and midfield was yawning, as was the distance between Evans and Evra. It wasn’t a good day for French full-backs and Evra’s sluggishness was also uncharacteristic. In fairness to him, it was a clear off-side and should have been given. It happened again towards the end of the first half when Podolski played the ball into Cazorla’s path but this time the ref’s assistant was alert to off-side.

Arsenal seemed in control for large periods of the first half. But as we’ve seen in this fixture before, Wenger’s side doesn’t create too many high quality chances despite creating an illusion of domination. Once United got into their defensive rhythm the Gunners were limited to shots from outside the box.

Apart from the goal, the only other genuinely exciting chance of the first half came from another quick transition when pressure high up the pitch resulted in a turnover. Ramsey made the wrong choice as he passed the ball to Podolski when Walcott was free. I doubt the Welshman even saw his English compatriot as things happened quickly. His choice would be inexplicable if he’d actually seen Theo with yards of space all around him.

The Gunners attempted over a 100 passes in the final third in the first half. The visitors only managed a third of that. However, in terms of chances both sides seemed fairly even, which highlighted Arsenal’s defensive frailties and United’s efficiency on the counter-attack.

Of course, the penalty was down to a big mistake (or two) by Sagna but United had created three other half decent chances. Two of those fell to Phil Jones while an RvP header was saved by Szczesny’s face. Ferguson’s side were playing on the counter-attack and made clever use of the space behind the full-backs, particularly Sagna, whenever they could. Phil Jones made well-timed runs into the box as he attacked the crosses.

The first half was also characterized by numerous technical mistakes like poor touches and sprayed passes by players from both sides who’re usually much more accomplished.

There were fewer of these in the second half and the visitors grew into the game as time went by, but it’s worth noting that United were less efficient when they saw a lot more of the ball. Before a couple of late counter-attacks, Rooney’s header from close range was the visitors’ only real attacking contribution. Arsenal’s defence looked a lot more secure when they had the support of other outfield players and didn’t have to deal with quick transitions.

Wenger made the obvious substitutions – Wilshere for Rosicky, Gervinho for Podolski, and Oxlade-Chamberlain for Ramsey (Sagna might have been the better candidate given his form in this game) – but, to be honest, there wasn’t enough firepower on the Arsenal bench to make a difference against such an opponent.

The Gunners just couldn’t work any combinations in the attacking third of the pitch to break the United defence down. There were many promising moments that were squandered as the players tried thinking on their feet and made suboptimal choices. Arsenal’s inefficient wing play was also easy for the visiting defence.

Podolski down the middle is an option I’ve wanted to see more off, but there is always the risk that the team won’t be able to adapt to his style without sufficient time. The German is the kind of player who can receive and pass the ball in tight spaces but he needs the ball at his feet and doesn’t always move around to offer himself. This really minimized the opportunities for working combinations with Podolski at the centre. The midfield’s inability to make third-person penetrating runs around him just as the German received the ball from another player also cuts out attacking options.

Giroud and Podolski have very different individual qualities and the other players will need some time to change their styles to suit the attributes of a different central striker. I think Wenger should persist with Podolski as long as the Frenchman is suspended. It might not excite the fans immediately but there is potential there that could be harnessed with some focused work in training. It has a bit of a risk for this season but could be useful practice for the next. In any case, it’s not like there is an overabundance of exciting options for that role.

I thought this game ended on a positive note because Arsenal didn’t concede from a counter-attack at the end. When the Gunners had some pressure in the United box and won successive corners late in the game, my main thought was not of them scoring one but conceding one on a quick break. It almost happened when Rooney released Giggs down the left. In his younger days that would have been a goal. On this occasion, the Welshman’s shot was deflected behind for a corner from which Evra’s free header went over the bar. Arsenal succeeded in preventing United from winning a game they didn’t play particularly well in. Odd as it may sound, it is a commendable result given the recent history of these two teams.

Individual Performances:

Szczesny: Made one useful save from Van Persie and Rooney’s header was straight at him. Can’t be blamed for the penalty. Wasn’t troubled as much as United couldn’t direct some of their better chances towards the goal.

Sagna: Bulk of the blame for the goal falls on his usually reliable shoulders. Could easily have been sent off for a desperate lunge in the second half. Deserves some credit for tracking Jones’ run and putting pressure on him when the youngster looked set to score. But broadly speaking, this was a game he’d want to forget soon.

Mertesacker: Made some useful interceptions and got on the end of a few of the balls put into the box. Played his part in minimizing the damage Van Persie and Rooney could inflict.

Koscielny: Was again the busier of the two centre-backs with numerous useful interceptions and tackles in front of the Arsenal box that broke up potential attacks. Passing could have been better – for instance, the first chance for Jones resulted from a counter-attack after one of his loose passes went straight to an opponent around the centre line.

Gibbs: Saw much less of the ball than Sagna and probably benefitted from the fact that Valencia was having a bad day. Offensive contribution was marginal.

The defenders had a fairly decent day but it wasn’t as good as is needed for getting big results at this level on a consistent basis. United were able to break forward more often that Wenger would have liked and with relative ease. They were also able find clear spaces to cross and get on the end of some balls in dangerous areas in front of the goal. The tendency to gift goals through major individual mistakes is rankling.

Arteta: Steady game from the Spaniard with decent defensive contribution. Not his best or worst game. Can’t really recall many noticeable events, which is partially good, but a bit more influence from the most experienced midfielder can always help.

Rosicky: Excellent assist and he seemed to be running the show in the first half without quite orchestrating the second breakthrough. It’s good to see him drop deep at times but I’d also like to see him get really close to the striker more often, particularly when the leading man has good technical skills to combine. I expected he will be taken off but was also a touch disappointed.

Ramsey: It’s good to see him have more and more influence on games and hopefully it will become decisive soon. For instance, that pass that didn’t got to Walcott or that superb throughball that Podolski couldn’t take in his stride were moments that could have given him a lot more confidence and the team that extra edge. Pressing up the pitch was useful but I did get a feeling the full-backs, particularly Sagna, could have done with more support.

Cazorla: Forced a couple of good saves with enterprising shots from distance. Wasn’t able to create as much or get closer to Podolski, which was a surprise because usually they combine well. Does look like a player who could use a day off.

The midfield had control of the central third in the first half and produced enjoyable combinations in that part of the pitch but they couldn’t quite find the combination to unlock the opponents in the attacking third. Often it was a matter of picking the wrong option, or seeing the pass a little late which allowed the defence to recover.

I do get a feeling that Ramsey’s greater freedom in midfield is putting greater positional burden on Arteta and is restricting his contribution. Will have to see this over the next few days before forming any opinions.

Walcott: Took his goal well but had very little to offer once the game got congested. He’s not the kind of player who can adapt to a change in partners very quickly and naturally.

Podolski: Have already covered his role and issues above. He really has to move a lot more when playing centrally for a team like Arsenal. Too often you feel he is waiting for something to happen without realizing that it’s his job to make things happen. Constant movement, often seemingly aimless, is an unheralded but vital part of a striker’s role, especially at a club like Arsenal. Dropping deep can help, as it did for the goal, but he also needs to move horizontally along the defensive line with an eye for the space in behind. Even when he drops deep he needs to be alert to options before he receives the ball instead of looking for them after receiving and controlling it. The opportunities are lost in the blink of an eye when playing in tight spaces against well-organized opponents.

The attacking players were involved with the goal but spent the rest of the game being largely ineffective. In part it’s the problem with the system which demands a great degree of mutual understanding, but it’s also an issue with individual qualities and limitations.

Subs: None of them added anything different or extra, which was understandable and regrettable.

Wenger: Ferguson’s ‘formula’ nearly worked even with a side that wasn’t completely motivated. The result does not hide the gap between the two sides. United were more efficient in attack and more stable defensively. It is a systemic issue that Wenger has to address.

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Thoughts On Tactics And Starting Eleven Against Manchester United

The champions-elect will receive a guard of honour at the Emirates on Sunday while Robin van Persie could receive something quite to the contrary from the fans. Those are interesting but minor subplots as the twists and turns in Arsenal’s quest for the Champions League places will surely take centre stage once the game begins.

Ferguson seems to have the formula for playing Wenger’s sides, particularly in the last few years. I probably don’t have to remind you that Arsenal have only won 1 of their last 8 Premier League games while losing 6 of those. In the same period the Gunners have also lost 3 cup games against the Red Devils.

At the simplest level, it’s said that Ferguson asks his players to get tight to their opponents and deny them any time or space on the ball to disrupt Arsenal’s passing rhythm. United’s usually secure defensive structure has also kept the Gunner’s out and limited the number and nature of chances they could create. At the other end, quick counter-attacks and clever wing play have caused Wenger’s defence a fair amount of problems.

United have scored 18 League goals in the last 8 games against Arsenal conceding just 7 in the process, which explains the results and bears evidence to the success of Ferguson’s formula. Even if the 8-2 score line is removed as an outlier, the Red Devils have scored 10 to Arsenal’s 5. They also scored 6 while conceding just once in the 3 cup ties between the two sides during the last four years or so.

Wenger will have to find a way to counter Ferguson’s simple-sounding but highly effective approach. It won’t be easy because the Arsenal manager always wants his teams to play the same way. The Frenchman’s belief seems to be that if his side plays as well as they can the opponent’s tactics won’t matter. Clearly, the Scot has got the better of him over a long enough duration to merit a reconsideration.

The way I see it, Arsenal’s biggest challenge in this game is to ensure they don’t conceded a goal. United have lost only 2 away games this season and both have been narrow 1-0 defeats. Arsenal’s only win in their last 8 League meetings against the Red Devils has also been a 1-0.

Needless to say, the first goal will be vital and could prove decisive. Both these sides have only lost 4 points from a winning position but the champions-elect have turned it around more often than Arsenal as they’ve recovered 28 points from losing positions to Arsenal’s 16. Wenger’s team might struggle to get anything from this game if they concede the first goal. Individual mistakes or structural looseness must be avoided at all costs even if means playing out a drab, low-risk first half.

United don’t have anything more to play for so their motivation might drop as the game goes on particularly if it’s a tedious midfield battle. They might not track the runners or mark their opposing numbers as diligently as they’d do in a game that mattered more. A vertically stretched game would suit their strengths more and keep the players excited as they’ll always sense a chance.

The problem for Arsenal is that they’ve not really been able to defend in the central third of the pitch this season. When the defence has worked, it’s usually been hard work in and around the penalty box with most outfield players pulled back. Ferguson’s side generally finds a way to beat this kind of defending through their excellent wing play.

Playing slightly deeper with a couple of quick players in attack could still work for Arsenal if they can find a way to get the attackers involved and thus keep the visitors in check through an offensive threat of their own.

In Giroud’s absence Wenger will have to tweak his system a bit. Walcott is the only other player who’s played some games in the central role this season. Podolski and Gervinho are other options. I’d have liked to see the German get more time in the central areas but Wenger obviously has his reasons to keep him wide or on the bench. It’s tough to say whether this is the game to make a major change.

Having Walcott down the middle and Gervinho on the right should provide genuine pace to Arsenal’s attack but we’ve seen the team struggle to bring Theo into the game in such a role. I’ve felt that Wenger often leaves his players to figure out the solutions for themselves and it’s often sublime when it works, but against opponents who’ve mastered the defensive side of the game the answers can be hard to come by. Having certain pre-planned attacking options can help but I will be surprised if we see such moves from the Gunners.

Wenger does have most of his players available so it’ll be interesting to see what he considers a balanced line-up for this game.

I’ve a feeling Wilshere will start with Rosicky moving back to the bench. The rest of the team, barring Giroud, is likely to be the same as the one that took field at Craven Cottage.

We might see,

Szczesny – Sagna, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Monreal – Arteta, Wilshere, Ramsey – Gervinho, Walcott, Cazorla.

Ferguson might give some of his fringe players a chance and the United squad might have a lower degree of motivation than they usually have, but the Gunners can’t count on it. I have a feeling this game will be decided by mistakes rather than great football. Lack of confidence or tactical confusion could prove fatal for the hosts whereas a lower degree of concentration might hurt the visitors. It’ll probably be decided by a one goal margin or less.

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Thoughts On Tactics And Starting Eleven Against Fulham

The Cottagers have proven to be tricky opponents for the Gunners over the last few seasons. Arsenal last won against Fulham in 2010! And in the last 9 meetings between the sides the Gunners have won only 3. All those three came in a row starting with that heroic effort from Mannone in 2009.

It’s difficult to single out a reason for this because Fulham have had three different managers over that 9 game period. Even the patterns of play have varied. But there is one common factor – technique. Fulham sides over the last few years have had pretty good technical quality. This means they’re able to hold the ball against Arsenal and in some games they’ve even been able to push up and pin the Gunners back. At times this also coincides with their aerial strength and they’ve used the long ball effectively, particularly under Mark Hughes.

This season’s squad at Craven Cottage is again a technically strong unit. Players like Ruiz and Berbatov are just excellent while many others support them admirably as far as technique is concerned. In the reverse fixture they were able to create some delightful moves and made good use of the gap that develops when Arsenal’s pressing higher up the pitch is countered by the opponent’s sharp passing at the back.

For example, Kacaniklic’s goal in the reverse fixture came after a spell of short passing at the back. Four or five Arsenal players were trying to press higher up the pitch while the defence fell back. The gap that opened up was quickly exploited and Fulham went from their own half to the Arsenal penalty box in a couple of passes after playing at least 10 passes in their own half.

The off the ball movement of Berbatov, his understanding with Kacaniklic, and the patience, technique, and composure of their players at the back were all appreciable details in that goal.

Wenger’s team should expect more of the same and unless they keep their shape compact they’ll again concede through a similar pattern just like they did against West Brom.

With the aerial threat posed by Hangeland and Senderos, Fulham will also be a hopeful of troubling Arsenal through their set-pieces. Their full-backs make good runs and have the ability to put quality balls into the box. That’s another potential avenue for attacks. With the likes of Berbatov, Ruiz, Karagounis and others in their ranks, shots from distance could also be a problem if the players are not closed down.

In the reverse fixture Fulham also did a great job of nicking the ball from an Arsenal man in possession with Ruiz in particular stealing possession from at least three different Gunners (including the penalty incident when he pinched it off Arteta). Dawdling on the ball will not be a good idea and some shouts from teammates could also help.

Their defending hasn’t been particularly great. Even at home the Cottagers have lost 6 games and conceded 22 goals. Although occasionally they can produce the kind of performance they recently showed at White Hart Lane to win the game by a solitary goal, they’ve only kept 4 clean sheets at Craven Cottage. Martin Jol’s side have lost 5 and drawn 1 of their 7 home games against sides that are above them in the League.

Wenger’s side should be able to create chances and score goals if they can move the ball at pace. They key will be to find a balance so that the defence isn’t left exposed and their technical players don’t find enough time or space to dictate play.

Arsenal will have to get more out of their winger if they wish to win this game. Ramsey’s forward bursts from midfield could also be very fruitful.

Wenger has most of his squad available for selection but it’s tough to guess what his choices will be. Wilshere’s inclusion in the previous games has been a surprise and the manager is known to manufacture injuries as an excuse when he leaves players out.

Rosicky’s presence in the starting line-up would definitely help the team. It’s tough to pick one out of Gervinho, Walcott, and Oxlade-Chamberlain as they all have their strengths and weaknesses. My guess is Theo will keep his place but my choice would be Gervinho because he has the best movement of the three and that opens the game up more often.

Wenger might even put Cazorla in the middle for this game and put Podolski back on the left to add some freshness. I’d like to see the German get some time in the centre but this is probably not the right moment to experiment with such things.

I’d like to see,

Szczesny – Sagna, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Monreal – Arteta, Rosicky, Ramsey – Gervinho, Giroud, Cazorla.

Wenger will make his choices based on injuries real or notional, the medical advice about the sharpness of some players (this will be the 3rd game in 8 days for many if there are no rotations), and his opinion of the combinations that can work. There are many permutations that could work for Arsenal and there are many that could struggle. In some cases the game could go either way with the same starting line-up and it would depend on how Fulham use their strengths and cover their weaknesses.

In that regard, since the Cottagers don’t have much to play for, we might see a marginally lower intensity and/or concentration in their performance. However, that is not something one can assume. Arsenal will once again have to show exceptional spirit if they wish to have all the three points from this game but that alone might not be enough. Good combinations in attack and structural integrity when defending will be just as important. Gaps between the lines might prove very expensive.

I have a feeling this will be a much more open game than the one against Everton was. Which side will take their chances?

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Thoughts On Tactics And Starting Eleven Against Everton

It might sound like a cliché but Everton’s visit to the Emirates is a six-pointer in the race for Champions League spots. There are 4 points separating four teams battling for two spots of which only Chelsea have a game in hand. A win for either side will be a major boost for their hopes and a severe dent on the other’s chances.

I doubt there are many who don’t realize the significance of this fixture and hopefully all the players will also be fully aware and ready because I’ve no doubt the Toffees will be fired up. One of the main strengths of Everton under David Moyes over the last few seasons has been the intensity of their game. The Blues from Merseyside can play the game at an exhilarating tempo and they are often able to sustain this right through the duration of the game.

This means Arsenal will come across an opponent that works hard at pressing the player on the ball and they will press as a unit with an attempt to stop the Gunners’ build-from-back routine. Fellaini will get tight on Arteta while the striker chosen (Anichebe or Jelavic?) will harass the central defender on the ball. The wingers will press the full-backs and the likes of Gibson and Osman will sit in central areas to prevent balls being played into the zone in front of the defence. They’ll try to shepherd the ball to the wings in order to compress play in relatively safer areas and force hopeful crosses.

Arsenal will find it very hard to create chances if they cannot get past this stifling pressure. It was a problem they experienced in the reverse fixture as well but this being a home game things could be different. More on that a little later.

Everton have also developed some interesting attacking options. Pienaar and Baines form an excellent pair on the left with a high level of understanding backed by top notch technique. But it’s the use of Fellaini’s aerial and physical prowess to gain territory that is most likely to trouble Arsenal. The Belgian often pulls towards one flank – their left – and is able to receive, hold, and distribute the ball to his teammates. Once Everton get the ball high up the pitch they get bodies around the ball and work some useful combinations. It can result in crossing situations, set-pieces, and, on occasion, penetrating moves with sharp, short passing.

In some of their physical games this season, the Gunners have tried dealing with the long ball by making Arteta drop right in front of the man receiving the ball – it’d be Fellaini in this case. By doing that Arsenal try to make it harder for the player to control or pass the ball. Attacking the second ball and not allowing the player any time to turn is also vital.

Wenger’s team will also have to put more pressure on the ball slightly higher up the pitch. They sat back in the away game and this allowed the Toffees to bring the ball out, almost to the centre line, before they launched it forward, thus gaining even more territory. At the Emirates the Gunners will have to apply greater pressure as a cohesive unit.

If they’re successful in that, the central defenders will have to deal with a physical striker who will then become the chief outlet for Everton. Stopping him from bringing others into play will be somewhat similar to dealing with Fellaini but in this case the defenders will have to be alert to the space behind them and will need help from teammates who’ve to track the runners.

The aerial battle will be vital in this game as Everton have scored and conceded the most headed goals in the League! Giroud could have a big role to play in both the penalty boxes. Same goes for the central defenders.

Felliani Vs. Arteta is going to be a major battle right through this game. But if Moyes decides to deploy the attack minded Coleman at right back, Cazorla’s tendency to drift all over the pitch could leave Arsenal’s left-back exposed. With Arteta likely to be occupied by Fellaini, this would severely diminish the support that Monreal or Gibbs will get. Everton don’t build many attacks from the right but they do make clever occasional use of the space on that side when most the players are attracted to their busier, more threatening left side.

The control over the centre of the pitch will be vital. Arsenal have the technical competence to dominate that space while the visitors have the high energy, exceptional organization, and unwavering discipline on their side.

The Emirates has seen the most goals scored in the League this season averaging nearly 4 goals a game! I’ll be surprised and delighted if the Gunners keep a clean sheet in this game. They’ll probably have to score 2 or more to get the three points.

The Toffees have a fairly good defence but it’s not impenetrable, particularly if they do push up the pitch. Everton have conceded 11 goals in the opening 15 minutes and 11 in the final 15 minutes of games. In the hour in between they’ve only conceded 15 goals. A fast start could help Arsenal. With Arsenal’s tendency to score late in games and the fact that Everton have dropped 21 points from winning positions, 14 of which have gone in away games. It goes some way to explain why Moyes’ side have only won 4 away games all season.

The Gunners will have to be particularly vigilant in the minutes before the half-time whistle as Everton have scored the most in the 30-45 minute period. Their 15 goals in that period is the best in the League. The Toffees have also scored 10 goals in the final quarter-hour of games and have recovered 22 points from losing positions.

Everton’s current form is pretty good with 4 wins and a draw from their last five League games. But all of those wins have come at Goodison Park. On the road they’re winless in 4 with 2 draws and 2 defeats.

Wenger has some choices to make with many players now available for selection.

We might see,

Fabianski(Szczesny) – Sagna, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Monreal – Arteta, Rosicky, Ramsey – Walcott, Giroud, Cazorla.

Wenger might keep Vermaelen in the starting line-up if he thinks the Belgian is fresher. Wilshere did not look ready in the last game, a fact the manager and the player himself acknowledged. I don’t see the point in rushing him again. The temptation to give Ramsey a break and include Wilshere in the starting line up, even if it’s just for an hour, is understandable. But in my opinion it’d be a mistake given the predictable intensity of this tie. Walcott was lively against Norwich and hopefully he’ll have recovered fully. If not, Oxlade-Chamberlain is another viable option.

Podolski deserves more time on the pitch but, with Cazorla on the left working well, it’s hard to fit him in given that the manager prefers Giroud down the middle.

The choice between the sticks will be worth watching and could have an impact on the result. I don’t really know the right option for this game. Fabianski has looked solid for the most part but he has also shown the tendency to come for the balls that he should leave alone. In a game where we’re likely to see an aerial bombardment, any error of judgement from the goalkeeper could prove costly. Szczesny just has a lot to prove and is prone to errors as well. It’s going to be a tough call and Wenger might have to keep his fingers crossed after making it.

Arsenal have not won five League games in a row this season. They can achieve that by beating Everton. It will be extremely difficult and a genuinely pleasant surprise if they can do so. In order to understand the nature of the ask, note that apart from Manchester United no other team has won five games in a row in the Premier League this season. The law of averages is bound to catch up sooner rather than later. It almost did in the previous game but the team’s spirit and mental qualities saw them through. Those attributes might again be needed as this game could be a battle of wills. A draw might not help either side but to me it seems the most likely result.

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Thoughts On Tactics And Starting Eleven Against Norwich

Norwich have had a topsy-turvy ride this season. Before they met the Gunners at Carrow Road earlier this season in October, the Canaries were winless after seven Premier League games. A shock win against Arsenal sparked a run of form that saw them go unbeaten for 10 games that included the scalp of Manchester United at home. By the middle of December Chris Hughton’s side were enjoying unexpected heights hitting 8th place.

Since then it’s all been downhill with just 1 win in 15 games, but we get an idea of the unpredictable nature of the League when we see that the Canaries have taken a point off Spurs in that period and their solitary win has come against Everton!

Norwich have only 1 away win all season and have kept only 2 clean sheets. Hughton’s side have only picked up 10 points on the road scoring 12 goals while conceding 32. Even then, they’ve influenced the race for the Champions League spots by taking a point from their visit to White Hart Lane and Goodison Park.

Interestingly, of their 16 away games thus far, Norwich have scored 1 and conceded 18 in their 4 worst defeats (0-5, 0-5, 0-4, 1-4). The other 12 have been closely fought and were decided by a margin of 1 goal or less.

What we can say for sure is that the difference between teams at this level remains very marginal and it’d be naive to rely on the opponent’s poor form or perceived lack of quality.

Chris Hughton’s approach is simple enough, and not unlike many other relatively smaller teams that Arsenal face. They’ll sit deep and narrow in two largely flat banks of four. An extra midfielder could drop into this to increase the protection if the Gunners are able to build from the back at a high tempo. Their strength is in the compactness of this shape and it’s structural integrity.

Arsenal will find it hard to get space between the lines and in the penalty box. Manufacturing that space and then utilizing it before it’s shut down is going to be the main challenge of this game. Once again efficiency will be the key to a successful attack. Wenger’s team can do it if they can hit the kind of fluency they’ve shown in the recent past. However, a lot can depend on the timing of the first goal. Defensive teams generally gain confidence from a period of stubborn resistance in the opening exchanges.

Winning the individual duels in tight spaces will prove helpful. Norwich’s full-backs could be a weak link if they are isolated in one-v-one situations. Similarly, central defenders could be forced into mistakes if pulled out of their comfort zone. These defenders and those in front of them make each other better as one player systematically provides cover to the other. Arsenal have to break that defensive rhythm and structure.

At the other end it’s mostly going to be about set-pieces and counter-attacks. Grant Holt is a physically imposing player who has been a thorn in Arsenal’s side in the past. He has the ability to receive the ball in front of the central defenders and is often a good outlet for Norwich. The likes of Hoolahan and Snodgrass can quickly join him in breaking forward.

Vermaelen and Koscielny haven’t played together as often this season so it’ll be worth keeping and eye on their understanding and decision making. They have to be on the same page tactically or Norwich will have some opportunities to score.

West Brom troubled the Gunners from set-pieces even if they didn’t score from one (not considering the penalty as a free-kick for this point). Wenger and Bould will not want to test their luck again but I’m not sure they can do much at this stage of the season. It might again be a case where spirit and effort have to plug the holes that exist in Arsenal’s defensive system.

Injuries and suspensions might force a couple of changes. Mertesacker will miss this game and Vermaelen is the obvious replacement. Wenger mentioned that Rosicky might be a doubt for this game while Wilshere might be ready. Walcott too might have an outside chance.

Ideally, I would like to see as few changes as possible but a couple of modifications might not be a bad idea considering the fact that Everton are visiting the Emirates on Tuesday.

We might see,

Fabianski – Sagna, Koscielny, Vermaelen, Monreal – Ramsey, Wilshere, Arteta – Gervinho, Giroud, Cazorla.

Wenger could go with Podolski and/or Oxlade-Chamberlain for this game. Squad depth has to be used at some point.

Arsenal have won 4 games in a row in the League only once this season. A win against the Canaries would double that. Can they sustain the momentum or will the law of averages catch up?

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PS: I’m going to be busy with house hunting again this weekend. The post-match report will not be published on Saturday. The earliest I’ll be able to do is midnight on Sunday US Central time.

Thoughts On Tactics And Starting Eleven Against West Brom

Steve Clarke has done well in his debut season as a full-time manager. West Brom started well and were 3rd in the table after the opening 13 games or roughly the first third of the Premier League season. Then they suffered a winter blip and won only 2 of their next 12 games picking up just 8 points in that period.

While that may have ended any hopes of a fairy tale run for the Champions League spots, recent improvement in form has helped them stay in a very respectable 8th place.

Their results have been impressive but they’ve not been based on scintillating football. Clarke’s team are in the bottom half of the table when we consider possession, pass completion, shots per game, tackles and interceptions per game, and other such statistics. And they concede a fairly high number of shots per game (6th highest).

West Brom don’t play opponents off the park on a regular basis. The Baggies rely on qualities like hard work, discipline, and determination – often considered the hallmark of a British footballing side. They have made themselves hard to beat and grind out results. And like many other relatively smaller teams that punch above their weight, the Albion rely heavily on their home form.

Clarke’s team are 6th in the League on home form and boast the Premiership’s third best home defence conceding just less than one goal per game. A back four devoid of star names relies on stellar organization to meticulously protect Ben Foster and his goal. Mulumbu (missing this game) and Yacob have formed a surprisingly efficient partnership in front of them. The wide players pull their weight while the strikers – often Long as the solitary man for most of the game – chase the ball and run into channels tirelessly.

I’ll be surprised if Arsenal get the kind of time and space that they found against Reading in that enjoyable but distinctly one-sided encounter last week. The Gunners will have to be a lot more efficient in this game as they won’t get into promising attacking positions as often. Poor technique or choices in the final third will hurt the team’s chances, particularly if they come when an opening has been created.

We will also have to see if the midfield and the forwards are able to combine seamlessly without losing any fluidity. In away games Arsenal have been nowhere near as prolific as they’ve been at home.

Away games for Wenger’s side have produced 2.2 goals per game, which is the third lowest in the League. In contrast, their home figure of 3.93 is the highest in the Premiership. This difference is noteworthy as it shows the Gunners have been particularly cautious on their travels. They don’t take as many risks and thus create fewer chances, which in turn leads to a lower ‘goals for’ tally. Arsenal’s 20 away goals is roughly half the number they’ve notched up at home (39).

On the other hand, a more conservative style enables them to keep things tight at the back. You might not have noticed this (I hadn’t, till recently) but Wenger’s team have the best defence on the road this season. Just cast your mind back to the recent wins over Bayern and Swansea and you’ll get the picture.

It’ll be interesting to see whether Arsenal revert to their guarded approach or they try to push up and build on some effective high pressing we saw against Reading. In my opinion, as stated in the post match review, at least a part of the success against Reading was down to the Royals’ inability to adapt to the tactical changes that Adkins was trying to implement. So there isn’t sufficient reason to assume that pressing will work well against a confident West Brom side that is tactically assured, even if predictable and somewhat limited.

The Baggies will not take unnecessary risks in their own half and they will go long (no pun intended but chuckles welcome anyway!) if they have to. They’ll also be much better prepared and well-organized to absorb pressure if Arsenal can sustain spells of possession in their half. Getting to the penalty box and a clear sight of goal will take genuine skill and effort.

In such a case starting the game in a controlled manner seems to be the best option for the Gunners. Drop back without the ball, stay in shape, and minimize their opportunities to score via set-pieces and shots from distance. Arsenal also have to find a way to delay West Brom’s forward movement when possession is lost. The defence really struggles when the ball reaches their penalty box from the opposite one within a matter of seconds on a consistent basis.

This will be of particular significance if the hosts start with both Lukaku and Long in attack as they’ll have more offensive options. Long is likely to pull wide while the on-loan Chelsea man could use his physical qualities to receive the ball in front of defenders before passing it around. Both of them are capable of making runs in behind a high line. The importance of pressure on the ball, even if it’s not full-fledged pressing, and the decision making of the defenders cannot be overstated.

In attack, as already mentioned above, the Gunners have to be more efficient with their possession. A lot of mistakes are ignored and forgotten when a team completely dominates the opponents like they did last week. But that doesn’t mean the areas of improvement don’t exist. Inefficiency might be expensive in this game. Gervinho’s performance, if he starts, will deserve closer attention.

An early goal does change things and both sides will be wary of conceding one. Arsenal will certainly find it easier to stay back and solid if they are defending a lead. However, an interesting trend in West Brom’s games is that 24 of the 82 goals scored (~30 percent) have come in the final 15 minutes (76-90+) with the Baggies lagging 11-13. Another 20 goals have come in the final 15 minutes of the first half.

The grinding nature of their games could be a factor here. Their players probably tire towards the end and can’t keep up their meticulous routine. On the other hand, Clarke has often made clever use of late attacking substitutions to score against opponents who are pushing for goals or are tiring themselves.

Arsenal are 15-2 in the final 15 minutes of games. If memory serves, those two goals came in that home defeat against Swansea. Other than that Arsenal have not conceded goals at the death. That’s exceptionally impressive and provides a strong indication of their mental and physical strengths.

Keeping things tight in the early exchanges could work in their favour once again as long as they don’t get desperate and sacrifice balance at the end.

Wenger has a fairly strong squad at his disposal despite injuries  to key players like Wilshere, Walcott, and Diaby.

I would recommend going with the same starting line-up that worked so well against Reading. There is sufficient balance in that side and all the players in midfield are capable of bringing the ball out from back, which would mean less burden on Arteta and a harder pressing job for the hosts. Building from the back is vital to the style Wenger wants from his team so that balance with an extra midfielder on the flanks helps.

I’d like to see,

Fabianksi – Sagna, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Monreal – Ramsey, Rosicky, Arteta – Gervinho, Giroud, Cazorla.

Arsene might make one or two changes to keep things fresh but I doubt there will be many surprises in this game from either side.

It’s going to be a battle of minimizing errors while searching for that decisive moment or two. West Brom have beaten Chelsea, Liverpool, and Everton at the Hawthorns but they’ve lost to City and Spurs. What will Arsenal do?

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Thoughts On Tactics And Starting Eleven Against Reading

The international break didn’t come at a good time for the Gunners as they were just building some momentum with a couple of impressive wins. On the other hand, for Reading it was a blessing as they searched for a new man to take charge.

That can’t be changed and, at least theoretically, it shouldn’t be too big a factor if Arsenal want to put up a serious fight for the Champions League spots. However, I have a feeling it will be a factor and this will be a closely contested game.

It’s difficult to predict how Reading will play in this game. Nigel Adkins’ Southampton side wasn’t the best passing unit in the League but they did try to build attacks from the back and usually had respectable possession figures. McDermott’s Reading was a more vertical team that defended deep and then relied on longer balls to move forward. Will Adkins stick to the style the players are used to or will he succeed in changing their approach soon after taking over? Only time will tell.

Crossing and wing play formed a big part of Reading’s attacking repertoire and those skills could be used by Adkins whose sides utilized back post crosses to great effect. We might see Pogrebnyak pulling away to the back post and dropping into space between the central defenders and full-backs. From there he could either get some shots on target or provide lay-offs for supporting attackers.

Set-pieces will obviously be one of the visitors’ main hopes of scoring a goal.

For a team fighting relegation and with a new manager in charge, it wouldn’t be surprising if the focus is on keeping things tight at the back. Packing the centre of the pitch and forcing the Gunners wide is a tactic that has worked for many teams. Whether Reading can pull it off for the whole of 90 minutes remains to be seen. Their defensive record and the previous two defeats to Arsenal this season suggest the Royals will struggle, but at this stage of the season you never know what an extra ounce of motivation can produce.

Needless to say, this is a must-win fixture for the Gunners. On paper it’s an easy game. Reading have 5 points from 15 away games with just 1 win and 2 draws. But I have a feeling the hosts will feel some pressure and that could bring the dreaded handbrake into play. Reading could grow in confidence and the home crowd might become restless if the players lack a bit of confidence or we see the effects of internationals (which to me is not a completely convincing excuse) and they just can’t find the right tempo.

That said, Arsenal will have a good chance of getting all three points if they don’t gift a goal or two to the opponents. Cohesive defensive work seen in the previous games has to continue but at the same time the players will have to find a way to take more risks against a team that is likely to prioritize defending. Throughout the season there has been a struggle to find the right balance between attack and defence. In the previous two wins it was more about keeping things tight at the back and taking the chances when they came. This time around Arsenal will have to take more initiative and force the play.

The news of Diaby’s long term injury was disheartening, and Wenger will be without some other regulars like Wilshere and Walcott while Gibbs’ availability is doubtful, but the Frenchman has enough players available to put out a very strong team while retaining a couple of offensive options on the bench.

I have a feeling Fabianksi will retain his place as will Koscielny (unless he’s picked up some niggle with the national team). Jenkinson could make way for Sagna.

Will Cazorla play centrally or will Arsene bring Rosicky back into the starting eleven and move the Spaniard wide? I’d prefer the latter option.

Walcott’s absence also brings another decision into the picture. One of Podolski, Gervinho, and Oxlade-Chamberlain might start if Rosicky plays. Two of them might get a chance if Cazorla is the attacking midfielder.

I’d like to see,

Fabianksi – Sagna, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Monreal – Arteta, Rosicky, Ramsey – Cazorla, Giroud, Podolski.

That team might be a tad short on pace but it has more players who can combine in tight spaces. Against an opponent that is likely to focus on defending this ability can be crucial. Intelligence and understanding might be better attributes than speed in such a game.

It would be foolhardy to make any predictions given the topsy-turvy nature of the season thus far but, with Spurs visiting Swansea and Chelsea playing away to Southampton, Arsenal really can give themselves a chance to make up some lost ground with a home win.

P.S. – Those with an interest in numbers might find this analysis of home and away form of Premier League teams over the last five seasons quite enjoyable.

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Thoughts On Tactics And Starting Eleven Against Swansea

In a survey organized by the League Managers Association, Laudrup has been voted coach of the year and Michu the signing of the season. The Spanish midfielder has already proven to be a thorn in Arsenal’s side scoring three of Swansea’s four goals against the Gunners in their three encounters this season.

The manner in which Michu has scored his goals against Arsenal is worth recalling. In their shocking 0-2 win at the Emirates, the Spaniard scored his first by playing a deft one-two with Luke Moore after finding the ball in a great deal of space ahead of a fairly high, disorganized, and indecisive Arsenal line. He made matters worse by latching on to Jenkinson’s mistake around the centre line before producing another composed finish.

His goal in the 2-2 draw in the FA Cup again came against a high Arsenal line that could not deal with the second ball. Koscielny lost the physical duel and went to ground, Mertesacker was caught flat-footed and just didn’t have the pace to recover.

While Arsenal’s defensive efforts against Bayern were commendable, it will be interesting to see how players like Jenkinson, Mertesacker, and Koscielny perform against Swansea.

The sale of Danny Graham might work in Arsenal’s favour, particularly if Luke Moore misses the game through injury. Michu performs better when he plays off a leading striker as he takes up very good positions just in front of the central defenders and times his runs wonderfully. He also has excellent ability to combine with clever teammates when opponents play a high line.

Although he doesn’t become a bad player when pushed further up, Swansea’s signing of the season does lose some of his qualities when he has to play as the central striker. In such a case he doesn’t get as many chances to run at the opposition goal. However, if Arsenal continue to drop deep as they did against Bayern, Michu will get plenty of opportunities to get into the penalty box and do his thing, i.e. find space and finish chances.

Too much attention on one player can at times make things easier for his teammates. The Gunners will have to avoid focussing all their attention on the threat posed down the middle because Swansea have some very tricky and creative wide players in their ranks. Dyer, Hernandez, and Routledge can all provide assists and score goals. De Guzman’s forward movement from midfield can also be an attacking option for the Swans.

Considering the possibility that the Welsh side will not be playing with the metaphorical handbrake on as Bayern seemed to, it’s quite likely that Arsenal will have to produce a better all-round defensive game on Saturday than they had to in midweek. If Swansea get players free in the attacking third even half as often as the Germans did, they will succeed where the Bavarians failed and Arsenal will not keep a clean sheet.

In order to produce a stronger team performance Arsenal will need greater control of the midfield than they had the Allianz Arena, something that is patently not beyond their abilities. It will be interesting to see if they continue their attempts to press higher up the pitch. To be honest, I am not completely sure what Arsenal’s plan was in Germany as they pressed high up the pitch but were also very quick to drop back on to the edge of their box when Bayern moved beyond that pressing. While it worked in that game, we’ll have to see if such an approach can be successful over a long period against different types of offensive threats before forming any conclusions.

Irrespective of the choice of defensive tactics employed, the central defenders must not be left in a 2-v-2 with opposing attackers as they were in the 0-2 defeat at the Emirates in the reverse fixture or more recently at White Hart Lane. That is just an open invitation to trouble, particularly when the defenders are unclear as regards their choices and positioning.

In defence, Swansea are a fairly well-organized unit with every player pulling his weight. That said, it’s worth noting the fact that their 19 goals conceded figure at home puts them a modest 14th in the list of home defences (Joint with Arsenal). They’ve been able to offset it by scoring nearly 2 goals a game at home, which has also led to some very entertaining games. The Welsh side are more vulnerable at home where they seem to take greater offensive initiative (their away defence is the third best in the League!) but they remain hard to beat as United, Chelsea, and Liverpool have all failed to win at the Liberty Stadium.

In fact, Swansea have only lost 2 home games all season and that does highlight the nature of Arsenal’s challenge. It is of course, also an opportunity as Spurs are the next team to visit this ground and could potentially drop points.

I have a feeling Arsenal will need at least 2 goals in order to win this game. And they won’t score with their only two shots on target this time around. That means the creative players will have to find ways to combine with the forwards and ensure a steady supply of chances. Rosicky’s drive through the middle, Cazorla’s raking diagonals, Walcott’s runs and positioning, and Giroud’s lay-offs and flick-ons can all make a difference if the execution is up to scratch. The Gunners will probably also need more of an offensive contribution from their full-backs who performed admirable conservative roles in Munich.

Arsene said he’d like to rotate his side a bit for this game but he doesn’t have that many options. Monreal will come in for Gibbs. Vermaelen could come in for Mertesacker if the German needs a break but I highly doubt that will be the case. Diaby’s presence in midfield could be useful but as we’ve seen this season, the Frenchman’s inclusion could prove to be a big gamble. Oxlade-Chamberlain and Gervinho could also be considered, particularly if Wenger feels the need to rest Walcott.

Given the imminent international break and the limited number of games remaining after that, I think Wenger should go with his strongest line-up on current form.

I’d like to see,

Fabianksi – Jenkinson, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Monreal – Arteta, Rosicky, Ramsey – Walcott, Giroud, Cazorla.

For over two years now I’ve maintained that most of Arsenal’s problems are not down to issues with individual players. Vermaelen and Szczesny have made some mistakes in the recent past but their absence does not guarantee an error-free outing for the Gunners.

It is imperative that the defenders are all governed by a common tactical brain and their choices work in unison. Similarly, they will  need support from the six players in front of them whether it’s in terms of putting pressure on the ball, or tracking back, or something else given the game situation.

And they have to do this without sacrificing offensive bite. This balance has proven hard to find and sustain this season.

Normally, a win against a team like Bayern, and that too in their own backyard, would be a massive confidence boost. But this season we just can’t be sure when the next twist in Arsenal’s Jekyll and Hyde tale will appear. Fingers crossed.

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