It’s been a while since I looked at the Premiership table with more than a cursory glance. And what I saw left me wondering whether any team will be able to hit the 80 point mark this season.
I did a quick look back over the last decade and in each year the winning team has crossed 80 points. In most cases two or more teams breached that mark. The lowest winning total of this century was the 83 point tally Manchester United got in 02-03 (Arsenal came second that season with 78). The highest was Chelsea’s 95 in 04-05. At least that explains why I’d taken the winners crossing the 80 point mark for granted.
This season however, it seems highly unlikely that any team will cross the 80 point mark. Based on the current points per game average only United, with 2.16 points per game, can get 82. Arsenal would get 76 with an even 2 ppg. All other teams currently have a points per game average of less than 2.
Many believe that Manchester United go on a good in the second part of the season after Christmas. They have done marginally better in their 7 games since the turn of the year with 16 points @ 2.29 ppg. But will they be able to keep up that rate with 7 away games remaining including visits to Arsenal, Chelsea, and a resurgent Liverpool. Maybe they will if they get the kind of help they got in their recent visits to WBA or Blackpool. They also have home games against City and Chelsea.
If United do manage to get 80 or more they’ll win the League. Arsenal have to take 30 points from 13 games to reach the 80 point mark. That means 10 wins and 3 losses or 9 wins, 3 draws, and one loss. Honestly, I can’t see it happening.
Chelsea need to win 12 out of their next 13 to get to 80. City need 10 wins and a draw from their next 12 games. Not going to happen.
In my opinion, realistically speaking, Arsenal can win 8 and draw 3 of the remaining games losing two in the process. Given the performances of this season we might win the tougher games but drop points elsewhere in games one would expect the Gunners to win. I don’t see this changing overnight. Such a finish would leave us with 77 points which is pretty close the tally predicted by the points per game projection.
For that to be a winning total, United would have to get 22 points or less from their remaining 13 games. Again, doesn’t seem very likely unless Chelsea, City and Liverpool do us some favours.
I was a bit optimistic about our Premiership hopes but once I looked at the numbers in the aforementioned manner it looks like a tough ask.
Of course if Arsenal do pick up steam and perform at a higher level the result could be different. Since January the Gunners have played 6 and have picked up 14 points for a ppg of 2.33. Extrapolating that number over the next 13 games we could get 30 points. If Arsenal can match the averages of the invincibles (68 percent wins and the rest drawn) we could get 9 wins and 4 draws for a total of 31 points. That would be some achievement.
A lot could depend on the result of non-premiership game on 27th Feb but my money is on a title winning total of less than 80 points.
Could see 9 wins, 3 draws, and one loss possibly. Gotta be positive.
The team that wins the title will be the one that puts together a run exactly like W9 D3 L1. That team could easily be us, which would mean 80 pts.
It could be United, but now that their flukey unbeaten record has been punctured I fully expect them to lose at least two more this season (probably starting with the Manchester derby) and draw three or four. If they lose two and draw four they would finish with 25 extra points for a total of 79.
What we really need, of course, is Arsenal to finish like they did in ’98…
Yeah 98 .. wasn’t that the time we won the title with 78 points
I’ll take it
You are spot on Desi. The way referees have behaved in last two games, I am getting a bit pessimistic. My take on this is that we will not be ‘allowed’ to win the requisite number of games. So let us be happy with the Carling Cup subject to Mike Dean having a change of heart!
sorry desi .. this is an of the topic video that i wanted to share ..
it’s from the early day’s of cesc’s captainacity .. and it shows his point of view on that issue and it may help u understand him much better !
have a good watch : )
Excellent interview, thanks for sharing.
We will not need to worry about this 80 points if we win all our games. Desi , you see you read too much into those statistics.The fact is that we have given around 20 points to the likes of Spurs, Wigan, Newcastle twice, West Brom and Sunderland BUT WE ARE MUCH BETTER THAN THAT ! In the last few weeks when we have had our 15-16 best players our points per game average is 3.In the next 2-3 weeks , we will have our best players back and the truth is that even the refs will not stop us win all games. This league is too east for us.My theory is strongly based on the hope that Song`s injury is not serious and he will play the remainder of the season.When we win the Carling Cup, we will have bigger confidence.Also when we are eliminated by Barca we will have a whole week to prepare for the next Premier League game. If we play with Szczesny,Sagna,Djourou,Koscielny,Clichy,Song,Diaby,Fabregas,Nasri,Walcott,RVP against United , we will certainly beat them.There is no doubt we will be champions. We have the best starting 11 by a long mile this season. We deserve to be champions.It is annoying that we make it so difficult for ourselves.
what’s to stop our squad or the referee’s giving away more points?
desi is just being realistic, and i’m positive he doesn’t rule out 13 games unbeaten, it’s just unlikely considering our form for this season.
also, you say this league is too easy for us and in the same breath say achieving against barcelona will not happen.
that’s just crazy my man, we’ve lost to big clubs this season. but we’ve also beaten big clubs.
my stance is we have a realistic chance of winning the league, and i would guess 9 wins and 2-4 draws could do it.
we are always competitive, we are arsenal!
You have to say positive, man ! I am exaggerating a lot in my comment.It is quite obvious. You dont have to take it seriously.What I am saying is that we have lost many points because we have not been full strength but in the next 2-3 weeks we will have our 16-17 best players ( szczesny,sagna,djourou,vermaelen,koscielny,clichy,song,diaby,ramsey,wilshere,fabregas,nasri,arshavin,rvp,bendtner and theo).Our form this season has been brilliant when we have had those players fit.
Also, we have no chance against Barca because they are simply out of this world.No team in history can beat them.
Desi,
I would put a slightly more optimistic picture. Although with Arsenal, predictions are often just way too hazardous.
I think this (below) is a realistic possibility provided injuries are not too bad.
H Wolverhampton W. win
H Stoke City win
H Sunderland draw
A W.B.A. win
H Blackburn Rovers win
A Blackpool win
H Liverpool draw
A Bolton Wanderers win
H Manchester United loss
A Stoke City win
H Aston Villa win
A Fulham win
A Tottenham Hotspur draw
win 9 draw 3 loss 1
I have assumed:
- Our performances against overtly physical sides like Everton, Birmingham, Blackburn Rovers have been far more assured than before. So I think we can put it across teams like Stoke, Wolves, Bolton etc.
- Teams that have pressed us hard have really done a lot of damage, so the Sunderland and Blackpool games become very dicey. Athough Blackpool is not the team that we blanked 6-0, I feel we can still put it past them, provided we deal with their set pieces well.
I would have included WBA as a risk match, but I do not thnk they are in the same frame of mind to hit us hard.
- Liverpool and Totts do remain point droppers. I have put a draw in White Hart Lane, given our recent record against them, although that can still turn out to be a win. Liverpool look a lot more threatening, with Raul Mereiles and Suarez. If Caroll can start against us, we can even lose this against them.
- Aston Villa at home would also be a bigger challenge with Darren Bent playing. His awesome record against us notwithstanding, I would still back us to win this, given their defensive porosity. On a similar note, I can still see us eking out a win against Fulham, if we stick to the basics, given that their strength in attack is not that lethal. (Although Harry Redknapp would disagree
).
- Man Utd: I can’t see us getting a point out of this even with Cesc and RVP in full throttle, as SAF knows very very well how to asphyxiate our style of play. We will hopefully fight much better than what we did in OT, but to even draw this, we would need their entire offense to have an off day.
.
)
But then who knows.. if Arsenal spring up another Christmas type surprise.
Of course I assume that the gap between some matches would be a little more since I don’t think we will get past Barca in CL. I just hope we come out with our heads held high, and do not let that gloom affect rest of the matches.
Interesting break down. I’m not that optimistic about Stoke away or Fulham away, especially given the recent refereeing decisions. If the race is going down to the wire I expect Stoke to get away with all kinds of Rugby fouls and tackles even on the Keeper.
I’ll make it more simple than that. United will play the most boring 0-0 draw ever witnessed against City. That puts us 2 back. Then all we need to do is play United even the rest of the way and beat them at the Emirates for a 1 point title win. See …. Easy
That’s a simple way of putting it but we all know it won’t work out that way. Arsenal will drop points when United win and vice versa.
Desi I think ManCitey can be a bigger threat especially if they win a 6 pointer against Manure…
I’m not convinced City have the experience to challenge for the title. But won’t mind them winning their next game that’s for sure
My guess is the 12th man will beat them.
I like the article and comments.
One thing that seems to be unanimous, but personally something I disagree with is the Barca predictions.
History has told us that ANY team that plays a high line against the current Arsenal team gets thumped. Pretty much everyone in the league has worked this out against Arse and the largest part of opposition tactics is to stifle our attack by forcing us to play through the middle of 2 compact lines of 4 playing very deep. The key, however, is to play deep against us.
Barcelona will not do this. Barcelona will play their game. Yes they will counter-attack us at the Emirates and give our defenders a torrid time, probably scoring goals with ease BUT we managed 2-2 least year with massive injuries and playing poorly.
Id start with Walcott AND Arsharvin. We could rip them apart. Im not sure anyone in Spain has the pace we do and I genuinely believe we will turn them over. We are massive underdogs which will be great for us to play our genuine game.
Arsenal to win 4-1 at the Emirates!
For the league, Frankly, it is ours to lose..
Reason: We have an easier run-in as compare to Manu, so the main thing we need to do is not to drop silly points and wait for Manu to drop point along the way, and Finish them off when we meet them again.
Problem: we tend to drop silly point and has missed numerous oppotunity to close the gaps.
As for the game againt Parca, we need to do some adjustment. Since Parca play high line, pressing games, we need to throw in all our speed demons in, and pin them back. Of coz they will start to play possesion football. We have to be on high alert and paient to wait for the opening to snipe them..
So many teams have dropped silly points this season that it doesn’t seem silly anymore.
It seems likely team with total of between 80-82 will win the title. However for us to win the title our match against Manu is the most critical , a loss here could open up a huge gap whereas a win on this would help us take over them and go onto win the league.
For me it’s more about the run in than trying to figure out what the final point tally of the champion will be. We’re currently four points behind ManUre and four points less in goal difference. If we beat them at home, that means we need to get two more points than United. With a tougher run in, that’s something that could definitely happen. Beating them is the key, dropping points in that game means ManUre have to drop five or eight points more than us over the other 12 games which I can’t see happening. They have games home and away to Chelski, away to Liverpool, home to ManShitty. Let’s face it, if they don’t drop any points from those games, they probably deserve to finish above us. Interestingly, the away game at Stamford Bridge may be moved because of fixture congestion, setting up a season ending double with Chelski. If Chelski are still in the Champions League by then, I can see them sacrificing those games, especially if the EPL title is beyond their reach by then.
I agree beating United at home will be important. But given the way this season has gone forward, I don’t think we can say our run-in is easier than theirs. Your expectation of Chelsea sacrificing the games is a case in point.
What this season has shown is that anyone can beat anyone else. If we follow that trend, any dropping of points will probably not be where we expect.
Right now we’re unbeaten in the league since mid December whereas ManU and Chelsea’s unbeaten runs have reset to zero.
With the Carling Cup and the Champions’ League both possibly out of the way, we can concentrate on the league and cup double in the last three months of this campaign.
That’s 11 games plus any FA ties during March/April/May.
Also, at the beginning of March we look at the fixture list and see that:
ManU have to play: Chelsea(A), Liverpool(A), AFC(A), and Chelsea(H) … in all 5 home and 6 away.
Chelsea have to play: ManU(H), ManC(H), Sp*rs(H), and ManU(A) … in all 6 home and 5 away.
ManC have to play: Chelsea(A), Liverpool(A), and Sp*rs(H) … in all 5 home and 5 away.
While we’ve got Liverpool(H), ManU(H), and Sp*rs(A) … in all 5 home and 6 away.
What does this all mean? Well, two things.
One is that once the fuss (or greatness) of February leaves us, we’ll be looking at a fixture list that can have us fielding our best players more often than not.
And two, that, in all probability, our rivals are going to have a far tougher time of it than ourselves.
And what of this weekend’s Manchester on Manchester action? Well, it’s a win, win, win thing for us. At week-end’s end we could be one or two points behind ManU or three or four points ahead of ManC (with a game in hand and a better goal thing) … anything else is the status quo ante.
Of course, we’d have to beat Wolves first, which is the real point about the title this year:
Win our games and we’ll be fine. And just don’t take anything for granted.
Your last line seems most pertinent.
nice article with a good perspective.
here are our games that remain:
1. Wolves(h)
2. Stoke(h)
3. B’ham(h)
4. Sunderland(h)
5. West Brom(a)
6. Blackburn(h)
7. Blackpool(a)
8. Liverpool(h)
9. Bolton(a)
10. Man united(h)
11. Stoke(a)
12. Aston Villa(h)
13. Fulham(a)
for me, if we are to win the title, we have to go on a good run before we play liverpool. yes, there are no games that are granted to be won, but to win the title, we need to beat wolves, stoke, birmingham and sunderland at home on the trot. we could very well be leading the pile of the league before we play pool if we do so. easier said than done. the tricky games seem to be manu at home, villa at home and fulham away, without under-rating other decent teams we have to play. i can see us winning 9, drawing 3 and loosing one. that’ll take us to exactly 80 points. and with the teams around us having to play each other more than us, than could see us win the title. we just need our players to stay fit from here on till the end of May.
Left out Spuds away which will also be tricky. Big question is: when will the referees consider that we have been punished enough?
The third game is not Birmingham at home, that one is already over. We play Brum in the CC final at that time. The League fixture was spuds away but it has been shifted.
I see your point about the run but a couple of Cup games in between might have a bigger impact on the League form.
As long as the likes of Djourou and Song remain fit, I see us winning all our remaining home games. Including Man-utd.
Up until the EPL began the popular theory was if you won all your home games and drew all your away games you would end up winning the league. This, under the 3 point for a win system would give you 76 points after 38 games, giving an average of 2 points per game. When Arsenal won the league in 1987 they finished with 76 points.
Now since the arrival of Man Utd in the nineties followed by the oligarchs and Sheiks the goalposts have been moved and about 10 extra points seems to be the norm to win the league.
This season seems a bit different, mainly I think due to the quality throughout the league. It seems no game today is a guaranteed 3 points.
If Arsenal beat Wolves tomorrow they will have exactly 2 points per game. Before the introduction of the EPL this would have been championship form. Up until the Eighties there were 2 pts for a win and 1 for a draw with 42 games played. Arsenals average today (assuming we beat Wolves)would have have given us 63 points after 42 games under that system. In the sixties Leeds broke the record with 67 points.
Surely it’s far better for the game when things are much closer than the usual big 4 plus the rest. To think we only finished 3rd in 2007-08 with 83 points. In the sixties we’d have only been 2 points off the league record with that score. I hope that hasn’t been too confusing but it was a very analytical subject Desi.
I agree it’s better for the game when things are closer. And I’m quite happy with the move to 3 points for a win as it gives the teams a lot more incentive to go for a win. I think this season a number of smaller teams have been able to achieve that and it’s brought the teams at the top a lot closer.
stop procrastinating, start enjoying….
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