Over the last week or so I have been trying to think of acceptable results from the next four games. It’s just a thought stuck in my head more than anything else. We have all shared some laughs over the fixture computer but the time for jokes is now over just like our FA Cup run.
Mathematically, even if we lose all four games we can reach the 82-84 point mark that AW and Fergie have been speaking about. We will have to win all our remaining 12 games though if that were the case. This to me represents the worst case scenario and I am quite confident we won’t be in such a situation. But it does tell us that there isn’t much room for maneuvering.
In contrast, winning all four games would be the best case scenario and I am sure the team will try their best to achieve this. It will certainly put us in pole position as we will have won six pointers against the two title contenders. To be honest, I don’t think it’s a realistic proposition.
As I think more, the two games against United and Chelsea seem far more important than the other two. These games are called six pointers for good reason and we just cannot afford to lose. If these games end up as a draw it still puts us level with the contenders. So I would say we need a minimum of two points from these games.
In my opinion the United game is eminently winnable, while the one at Stamford Bridge would boil down to individual moments. Four points from these two games would be a fantastic result for us and will most probably make the title challenge a two horse race.
The games with Villa and Liverpool are quite tricky. If we can be at our best we should win both, but these teams have the ability to put men behind the ball and play on the counter. They also have the ability to come off the blocks at top speed, quite like what Stoke did on Sunday. We haven’t lost at Villa in ten league visits and I don’t see any reason for that record to change. Similarly our performances against Liverpool have been far better than those against United or Chelsea. I think four points from these two games would be very acceptable, while six would be perfect.
One reason these fixtures are important is that United and Chelsea also have to face them and could potentially lose points in these games. If we can win these games we give ourselves a good chance of picking points on the competition.
The way I see it, the only real cause for worry from these four games would be a loss to the teams either side of us in the league table. Any other result is acceptable but failure to win consistently will create tremendous pressure on the team and give strength to the voices of dissent amongst supporters and the media.
If we avoid defeats against United and Chelsea, I would consider the points as
Four – Acceptable but cutting it too close
Six – Keeps us in the hunt
Eight or more – Highly positive result
I understand that the premier league is not won or lost by games against the top teams but considering the league is so close, losing against the competition gives them a huge advantage. If we lose to either of the two we won’t have fate in our own hands. Arsene has already put his eggs in the premier league basket so now is the time to deliver. After this period we could be anywhere from practically out of the race to clear pace setters.
United have only three games in the same period with games against us and Villa in the mix along with an easier one at home to Portsmouth. Since they have played an extra game already this gets balanced out. I don’t see them pulling away unless we let them win at the Emirates.
Chelsea on the other hand have five fixtures during this period with games at home to Birmingham and Arsenal, and away trips to Burnley, Hull and Everton. The Blues could pull away from the pack during this period but their run in at the end of the season is quite difficult with away trips to United, Totenham, and Liverpool a part of their last six games.
My guess is that we will take six to eight points from this period while Chelsea will emerge as leaders with a slender margin in a title race that will go down to the wire.
desi..tough nut to crack…have to wait n see…n hope that luck is on our side….
Any predictions? We have song back now, so that must mean atleast 2 goals that we aren’t gonna concede.
well said
But I’m not sure if Song will be back for the Villa game.
Arsenal need to win all games because chelsea and manchester most of their games is a win. We have to be tight in the race.Wenger should be carefull with selection of players.
ya of course…..as if chelsea will win all the remaining matches..and so will manutd….as if other teams will put out their reserve team against these teams…get realistic..
7 i believe we will secure. Win over United and Villa, Draw to Liverpool and a loss at the bridge. which will be negated when United goes to OT and Anfield.
But that’s a gut feeling only. I’d rather we got all 12 thank you very much.
I’d be happy with 7 points but am expecting 8 to 10. A win against United by 3 plus goals would be satisfying.
yaa.. its a tuff schedule.. i agree if we can get 8-10 points.. it will be just amazing.. Hoping FA cup loss comes as a boon and we have our max strength side to win these games.. Come on Arsenal.. now is the time..
very un-predictable.
Why day dreaming without a prolific striker u can’t win against the likes of united and chelsea
are u from lala land???? arsenal are top scorer in the league without a prolific scorer..they just need to prevent conceding first…
dude if you think 4 points vs utd and chelsea will put utd out of the race then you are living on another planet. we won’t win all our remaining 12 games after these regardless of if we even won all 4 of these, more likely we’d win around 8, perhaps draw 3 and lose 1. so if you think it’s unrealistic for utd to make up a few points in 12 games i can’t see where you’re getting that idea from at all. extremely wishful thinking in my opinion. i fancy us to beat or draw with villa, beat utd, draw/lose to chelsea and beat liverpool. where that would leave us who can say. i also think you underestimate the importance of the liverpool and villa games too. the reason games get called 6 pointers is because you are sure one team gets no points and the other team gains 3 points. but if we lose to villa- chelsea and utd will probably win their respective games regardless resulting in the same thing mathematically. so these games are no less important. it’s exactly our players thinking the smaller games are less important which has cost us dearly over the years. the league title is won by winning the easier games not the biggest ones, they are only the ones which get the most hype. and i think it’s extremely unlikely that these 4 games will be more important than the 12 following them, unless of course we lose all 4 and chelsea win all 4, which really would mathematically make it unrealistic for us.
I expect Utd to lose quite a few more games just as both of us expect Arsenal to drop some points in the remaining fixtures. I think Utd are living on their reputation and Rooney. Doubt if it will last all season.
I am sorry if I gave the impression that the villa/pool games are not important. They are certainly imp but not six pointers. And Villa have already beaten Chelsea and Utd so why should I assume they will lose in the return fixtures.
I think we are capable of grinding out 8 points out of these 4 ties. If we can win the Villa game away it would wipe away all doubt which has crept in over the last few games where Bolton and Stoke put us under pressure.
Id like to focus on the United game though, I think this game will be our most difficult because of the mental strength (which United know they have over us). We need to keep our wits about us and be prepared for the waves of pressure they will build.
The Chelsea game is less difficult to me because we know where we going, our favourite status in the match and what we need to do.
We won both these games last year i.e. Utd at home and away to the Brdige so we should be mentally strong for these games.
We have a chance if we dropped Denilson an bought a big striker
Realisticly a draw at Villa = 1 point, a win at home to United = 3 points, Chelsea away = 0 points and an away win at Anfield 3 points. So, I suggest a total of 7 points.
We’re playing Liverpool at home mate, not that it changes the number of points. just an observation
I am praying that things should just work out for us, its not going to be easy but i believe we shall come out smilling with 10 points out out of the available 12
We can beat Villa and United and Draw At Liverppol and Chelsea. 8 points and lots of pressure on Chelsea and United.
Song and Campbell should start…
i dont see why we cant beat villa , liverpool and united and draw chelsea. that would be 10.
minimuum to win we need to take 7 ,
2 wins and a draw
i agree with most of the above comments and believe that not losing at the bridge is the most crucial part as they are already having 1 game in hand and we cant give them more points as this would mean we r out of the race.
I dont think we can afford to lose to Chelski… I’d see man Utd as a really winnable game… and 4 points from Liverpool and Villa at a min.
If we are serious about winning the title, 8 points i think is a must… If we take 6 or less, we are suddenly over dependent on Chelsea dropping points…
d way i see it The worst case scenario wud be getting 4 points n we should be prepared for this… Our expectations shudn’t be sky high, but realistically i think we wl get 5 points from the 4 matches wt a win against liv., Draws against villa n united n defeat against chelsea….. In fac it cud go either way vs villa n we might even lose this 1…bt I hope iam proven wrong n our lads go al out n beat the hell out of al these teams!
I’d be happy with 7 points and delighted with anything 8 or over. Schedule wise this is a bitch but there are some nasty challenges ahead for MU and Chelsea and in a way it is good for us to through this now and *hopefully* lay a marker of intent.
MU have the distraction of the CC game against Man City. Given that they don’t have the strength in depth of previous years and that they too have suffered injuries, I would not be surprised to see them to fall out of the premier league race. I know you write of MU at your peril but this is the worst squad we have seen for years and they have their own nasty row of fixtures with which to contend –
10 Feb Villa (a)
16 Feb AC Milan (a)
20 Feb Everton (a)
Then from mid March they have this run of fixtures -
10 March Milan (h)
13 March Fulham (h)
21 March Liverpool (h)
27 March Bolton (a)
3 April Chelsea h)
Chelsea have a tougher April than most (away to Man Utd and home to Liverpool) but no real run of games quite as tough as Man Utd or Arsenal face. I suspect we may have to hope that fixtures in the FA Cup and CL cause distractions and that their injury record finally starts to get worse.
Losing Essien is a big blow but thus far they have had more luck with injuries than Arsenal & Man Utd by a long chalk.
Milan are in decent form these days. Will be interesting to see if Utd can cope with them. My guess is they will struggle.
we ar punching way above our weight with this paper thin squad. It is clear to see that against top quality opposition we struggle and even against some lesser teams we haven been either lucky or have showed tremendous fighting spirit to claw back draws and victories. Wenger is absolutely brilliant at gtting arsenal to consistently match quality opposition with weaker and younger players. We will come up short though and i hate to admit that so i can only see us pickng up 4 points….winning against liverpool and drawing against man u….i hope im wrong but dont be surprised or diappointed ..remember the young team is still improving
Eh? Paper thin squad?
We have 9 players out injured and arse still capable of putting out a decent side. At one point we were missing 14 players – I would say this is arguably the DEEPEST squad we have ever had.
Chelsea & Man Utd would be utterly screwed with 9 players missing!
then paper thin players wud be the right word….
sorry but damn I hate chelsea
Firstly, how many points will it take to win the League? Six of the last eight seasons 84 points wins it outright. Are Arsene and Fergie correct in their stated positions that this season 82 or 83 points might be enough to win it? I don’t know but for the sake of argument, I’m going to assume that 84 points will win the title and should be our goal. Arsenal need 36 points to reach that.
In our last twelve games, Arsenal will be favored in every single one. I’m not saying we’ll win every game. Man Shitty at home and Birmingham, Stoke, and Spuds away all loom as very tricky fixtures but I think that 29 from 36 possible points is not an unreasonable goal. So I would say seven points from the next four games sets us up very nicely.
I woke up today morning with the exact same question.. how many points out of 12? The truth is in the current version of the EPL it has become hard to even predict.. I haven’t got a single scoreline prediction right this season (Your competition result is a testament to that fact
). IMO, the next 4 games are the next half of the season compressed.. its hard to see it in any other light.. Considering the fact that our late season form is very good I’d say 8 points (3 AV+ 1 MU + 1 CHE + 3 LIV) will definitely put us on top.. 5 is cool as long as we dont lose to chelsea.. But I think (read hope) that our boys will somehow crack this carnival and come out with eleven, that is ofcourse assuming we have our best 11 for the last 3 games..
sorry I meant our boys will come out with 12
Even I don’t remember if I got any score prediction right.
By the way just for the sake of a laugh, eleven is the only number between 0 and 12 that we cannot get, lol.
lol, good one
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